Most of the third quarter issue of NGF’s Golf Industry Report newsletter is devoted to an analysis of the potential impact of the baby boom generation on the golf industry over the next 20 years. The issue will arrive in members’ mailboxes in a few days. Meanwhile, we’re presenting a sneak peek at some of the key points from the study.
Baby boomers are the 78 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964. They are ages 42 to 60 in 2006. One in four Americans is a baby boomer; a boomer turns 60 every seven seconds. Boomers were responsible for many dramatic cultural changes that occurred after World War II, from the peace movement to the yuppie phenomenon.
About nine million boomers are golfers and they are about to move into the higher play frequency and golf spending years. The chart below shows that average rounds increase significantly as golfers age. It also shows that the baby boomer generation is behaving remarkably like the generation before.
Although their average rounds are lower – due to increased job and family responsibilities – baby boomer participation rates are actually a bit higher than that of the previous generation. Moreover, the sheer number of baby boomer golfers on the cusp of retirement bodes well for the industry.
NGF estimates that, over the next 20 years, total rounds attributable to boomers will increase by 75 million to 100 million above what they are currently playing.
But, will baby boomers continue to play golf? We can’t be sure, but we’re confident based on what they’re telling us. Ninety-seven percent of Core golfers we surveyed who are five or fewer years away from retirement report they’ll definitely or probably still be playing in five years. And, 95% of Core golfers who are 20 years from retirement (in their early 40s today) say they’ll still be playing 20 years from now.
The bottom line is that over the next 20 years there will be more golfers in the higher play frequency years than at any time in history. When will this happen? Not tomorrow – baby boomers haven’t begun retiring in large numbers. However, our model suggests that incremental rounds from boomers will rise gradually over the next 10 years, peak around 2015, and remain in force for another 10 years after that.
NGF “Research Sponsor” at Golf Inc. Fall Conference
NGF is the Research Sponsor of the Golf Inc. 2006 Fall Conference at Amelia Island Plantation in Amelia Island, Florida, September 25-27.
NGF president and CEO Joe Beditz will be featured during the opening session of the conference in a state-of-the-industry report that will include year-to-date updates of golf course development, course closures and openings, rounds played, golf equipment and other important measures.
Dr. Beditz will also be featured in the Wednesday morning management keynote state-of-the-industry session, joining Ron Jackson (Meadowbrook Golf), Rich Beckert (ClubCorp) and David Pillsbury (PGA TOUR Properties) on the podium. During this session Dr. Beditz will speak about the impact of the baby boomers on the industry.
As Research Sponsor, NGF is providing copies to attendees of several research reports, including:
- NGF’s Golf Industry Report newsletter, 3rd quarter issue, featuring a complete analysis of the potential impact of the baby boomers on the golf industry.
- NGF’s Golf Industry Overview, a PowerPoint-style presentation containing the most up-to-date information on golf course development, golf participation, rounds played and golf equipment sales.
- NGF’s Operations & Financial Profiles of 18-hole Golf Facilities in the U.S., a report detailing revenues and expenses at public courses and private clubs.
- Golf consumer profiles of juniors and women.
NGF research and information will be used to support various conference sessions. For example, those attending “Family Golf Success Stories” will receive consumer profiles of junior and female golfers.
And those attending the session “Build Loyal Customers through Database Marketing” will hear from NGF golf facility research and consulting sales manager and PGA member Ben Fowler. Participants will receive hands-on examples of NGF’s Golfer Survey Program that demonstrate how the program can be used to measure and improve customer loyalty.
The Golf Inc. Conference is presented by ValleyCrest Golf Course Maintenance. Conference registration information is available by calling 877-465-3462 or by visiting www.golfincmagazine.com..
