William K. Wolfrum: Steve Flesch certain to win PGA Championship

If there's one thing I know, it's that calling a college kid of Indian heritage "monkey" at a rally is a fairly interesting way to start a campaign that you hope will eventually sweep you into the White House. But Virginia Sen. George Allen is no ordinary man, he's an "imbecile" -- which is a word I just invented that refers to his hair.

Now, if there are two things I know, it's that a ham n' egger is going to win the 2006 PGA Championship. I know this because, while politicians will look you right in the face and lie, statistics won't, and neither would I. At least not now.

Over the last 10 years, the PGA Championship has been won three times by players who either had no business winning in the first place, or just dropped off the map after winning: Mark Brooks, Shaun Micheel and Rich Beem have all claimed the Wanamaker Trophy since 1996.

Now, the last two titles have been won by Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh, two golfers who, despite having the insecurity that comes with not being Tiger Woods, are the type of golfers who are supposed to win big golf tournaments.

In the world of statistical analysis that I'm basically inventing in my head as I go, this is called a "gimme." Over the last 10 years, 30 percent of the winners have gone on to not go on. The last two champions were big time, so the 2006 winner must be a no-name. You can argue, but I have statistics on my side here, and I will be forced to laugh at you with contempt at least until late Sunday afternoon.

My faith in statistics is so complete, that I am even willing, after careful analysis, to pick the winner of the 2006 PGA Championship: Steve Flesch.

Laugh if you must, but I am confident in my prediction. Steve Flesch will hold the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday. If he doesn't, you may call me a "doofus," which is another word I just made up meaning "natty dresser who's clueless about statistics."

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