How much of a facility’s favorable or unfavorable annual rounds performance is really related to weather? In search of that elusive answer, Pellucid Corp. unveils its latest industry-leading information application, the Weather-Adjusted Capacity Analysis.

By measuring the weather’s impact on capacity at individual facility level, it’s now possible to determine what portion of annual rounds variance can be associated
to “uncontrollables” (weather, supply dilution etc.) vs. “controllables” (pricing, course condition etc.). “After years of hearing unfavorable and favorable rounds performance anecdotally attributed to weather, we took dead aim at trying to quantify this intangible which is critical to any assessment of the real health of the golf industry,” said Jim Koppenhaver, President and founder of Pellucid.

In development work spanning over a year, Pellucid had to overcome two primary challenges: Getting a dynamic weather data partner who shares Pellucid’s rigor and analysis approach as well as trying to define the concepts of “capacity” and “playable hours”. Using 24/7/365 weather data collected from over 1,600 Official US Weather Reporting Stations, coupled with a proprietary set of “weather rules”, Pellucid now possesses the ability to produce Weather Adjusted Capacity (WAC) for each of the 16,000+ golf facilities in the US for 2002, 2003 and 2004 and comparisons against 10,20 and 30 year averages.

On a macro level, preliminary research shows average facility Utilization Rates that range from 45 – 55% over the past 3 years and indicates that roughly 60% of the annual variance can be attributed to weather (suggesting that 40% cannot).

Available as a series of reports and graphs, the individual facility level Weather-Adjusted Capacity Analysis deliverable will include:
• Comparison of 2004, 2003 and 2002 Playable Hours, Equivalized Playable Days and Capacity Rounds (for both Calendar Years and current Year-to-Date periods)
• Comparison of above with 10, 20 and 30 year benchmarks for Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds
• Playable Hours tracking by month and day-of-week to uncover favorable and unfavorable weather dispersion that isn’t evident in summary reports
• For facilities providing rounds data, the report will also include calculation of % Utilization Rates and an index of rounds performance against capacity variation

“It’s often joked in the industry that all rounds declines are due to poor weather and all rounds increases are due to superior management,” Koppenhaver continues. “Using this new capability will help interested stakeholders more accurately quantify the actual local weather impact and provide an independent view of both good and poor performance.”
Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill has been using WAC to determine course utilization since the early 90’s.

He ran a beta analysis using the new weather data and actual course supplied rounds data and found his client course had actually outperformed the weather in 2003. “The new weather data is a lot more accurate. The data was based on a Reporting Station less than 10 miles away compared to regionally adjusted data we used to use from our old sources, mostly from major airports,” Lindsay comments.

In addition to the initial facility-level Summary Report, Pellucid will also offer monthly updates for facilities at a nominal monthly fee. This feature will allow facilities to determine when mid-course corrections are needed in operations vs. staying the course when performance can be closely correlated to unfavorable weather. When linked to Pellucid’s Golf Local Market Analyzer information, benchmarking of a facility’s Utilization Rate against its peer group performance can also be accomplished.

Business applications range from using the 2004 Calendar Year capacities to estimate capacity for remaining season months (current capacity number is actual weather through October 2004 and projected Nov-Dec) to using the 20-year average capacity rounds and current utilization rate to do “weather-neutral” rounds targets for 2005.

In addition to facility owners/operators, this new tool can also be effectively employed by equipment manufacturers (impact on consumables by client facilities or retailers), lenders (portfolio or property performance for “weather-neutral” years as well as upside/downside ranges), service providers (more accurate and normalized feasibility, market analysis and valuation models) and suppliers (golf equipment sales, carts usage etc.) driving more informed decisions.

Pellucid is a privately-held, independent information and insight provider for the golf industry. Since 2001, Pellucid has brought non-golf information approaches, market research practices, superior measures and a fresh perspective to the golf industry. More information, a sample report format and pricing on the Weather-Adjusted Capacity Analysis can be obtained by contacting Jim Koppenhaver (847.808.7651 or jimk@pellucidcorp.com). Information on Pellucid’s other industry-leading work in Industry Overview Reports, Local Market Analysis and Customer Franchise Analysis as well as their bi-weekly subscriber newsletter, Outside The Ropes, is available by visiting www.pellucidcorp.com.