PGA Punter

WGC Accenture Match Play semi-finals: Cink has got to forget he'splaying Tiger

Some research published recently showed that when Tiger Woods is in a competition other players perform worse than when he is not. The suggestion is that his mere presence sows the seeds of failure in their minds. Someone who might have a thought about that is Stewart Cink. After sealing his final date with the world’s number one, he must surely have cast his mind back two years to their last bruising putter-to-putter encounter.

Who can forget the Bridgestone Invitational of 2006, the one Tiger won after lobbing a ball over the clubhouse roof, after his worst run of straight bogeys in 10 years, after losing a three-shot lead over the last three holes, but most crucially after watching Cink slide three victory putts by on their three playoff holes. Admittedly the first two were from around the 20ft mark, but the third was an 8-footer. Cink’s comment afterwards? “I didn’t convert, and he did.”

I cast my mind back to that encounter when Aaron Baddeley did a similar thing against Tiger in round three, missing those two winning putts on the 18th and 19th holes. Chris Baldwin’s thoughtful piece about Tiger puts his success firmly down to putting. It’s a fair point, but there’s two sides to it. As Cink and Baddeley have shown, it’s not just Tiger’s ability to sink those vital putts that wins matches, it’s his opponents’ inability to do the same before he gets the chance. I just wonder whether there isn’t really a tiny voice in a corner of their minds going “It’s Tiger, you aren’t going to make it.”

That, as much as anything, is what Cink has to beat Sunday, because as he proved at Bridgestone he has the game to take Woods on. Their stats are surprisingly similar and Cink is also the equal of Tiger on his record this week - their birdie count is almost the same, although Cink has played seven fewer rounds.

One problem for Cink is his love of coming out guns blazing in the hope of smothering his opponent before the turn for home. That is not so easy in a 36-hole match, especially when your opponent is Mr Woods. But his task is not half so forlorn as the huge gap in the betting suggests - he’s just got to get the Woods factor out of his brain and make those vital putts. Perhaps he should try to pretend he’s playing someone else.

And in Mexico: Your guess is as good as mine. To their credit the PGA Tour website did have a stab at stats this year, but they are all over the place, some players with none at all, others with rounds missing. The distance figures looked a bit dubious as well.

Five shots is a pretty handy gap for Brian Gay to take into the final round. We’ve seen far greater players than he throw away bigger leads on a Sunday, but then there were far greater players waiting in the wings to take over, and experience suggests Steve Marino and Matt Kuchar will struggle to match Saturday’s sizzling rounds of 6 under.

WGC Accenture Match Play round three: Scintillating Tiger looks well on his way

Out Tucson way it ain’t over till the Coyotes howl, and then some. I’m sure I wasn’t alone in wondering what household chores I should be doing as Vijay Singh and Rod Pampling trudged round those extra holes in seemingly eternal stalemate. I’d picked the American to win, but was just glad someone finally had the nous to finish the job before everyone was engulfed in desert darkness.

Otherwise, what a(nother) splendid day’s golf. Tiger Woods’s tense tussle with Aaron Baddeley will live long in the memory - 12 birdies and still he almost failed to get the job done. That’s the great thing about match play: a superb game by one contestant often brings out the best in his opponent. A pity Paul Casey wasn’t reading the script though. K J Choi was there for the taking and he flunked it. So much for English hearts of oak eh?

Now the extra component is battle fatigue, not just for the quarter finals, but the semis that follow straight after. That’s why, in looking at the quarter-final lineups, I’m paying close attention to each player’s vital birdie count, but also how much golf they already have under their belts. With this in mind, you might find this little table a help.

Jones bracket: Tiger could probably do with a break and he should get one here, relatively speaking. Only in the accuracy of his drives does Choi have the advantage. But from just one more hole played in this tournament, Woods doubles Choi’s birdie count. The Korean has faltered down the home straight twice already. He should be buried Saturday.

Hogan bracket: Henrik Stenson is the clear favourite, but I’m not convinced. Woody Austin loves this format and has proved so good at it that he’s only had to play 48 holes to the Swede’s 61 - and yet he’s equal on birdies. Stenson has a huge ability to grind out victory when defeat would be the easier option, but if there’s a match to catch him out, this could be it.

Player bracket: Vijay Singh’s gritty determination has already seen him go further than I expected, but he’s now played 62 holes, the most in the tournament. Justin Leonard has quietly dispatched his opponents in 12 fewer holes, yet easily beats Vijay’s birdie count. Vijay will have to dig really deep to win this one.

Snead bracket: I don’t like to call this one because on paper it’s the closest of the lot. Angel Cabrera and Stewart Cink have played the same amount of golf (a hole different) and are just about level on the birdie count. For no particular reason other than a reckless desire to buck the trend, I’m going for the underdog to make it an all-American sweep.

Meanwhile, they’re off and running in Mexico again: I can’t keep up! But this is where it gets interesting for leader John Merrick after two bogey-free rounds. He was doing nicely early on last year - just a shot worse off after two rounds in fact - but went into the 70s on both weekend rounds.

His stats so far are pretty good - top 20 for everything, a sign that he’s been working on his driving. But he’ll need to reconnect with the putter that deserted him Friday. If he does, there’s not a whole lot of people behind him I’d be too frightened of.

Perhaps his toughest opponent will be the Mexican wind, which looked fairly troublesome on Friday. The day’s stroke average was the highest to par on the PGA this year.

WGC Accenture Match Play round two: Can Stenson continue to ride his luck?

How Henrik Stenson is still in this thing is anyone’s guess. Not only did he play the worst shot in the competition, if not the history of professional golf, on Wednesday (running it pretty close on the same 18th hole the next day), but Trevor Immelman should have buried him Thursday, if only to make up for the fact that Robert Allenby should have dispatched him the day before.

Let’s hear it for the Phil Mickelson fans who might justly point to the Swede’s continued participation when poor Lefty departs after notching up a round with seven birdies. For once I can’t argue with the notion that Lefty was unlucky, but only in that he met the wrong player at the wrong time. Stuart Appleby found a few extra cylinders to fire on and make two more birdies.

Sure Stenson was lucky, and not for the first time. But how many times do you have to be lucky before the notion takes root that some players have the resilience to ride their luck in these competitions and others don’t?

And so, let’s get another eight players dead and buried:

Jones bracket - My picks are Tiger Woods and Paul Casey: If Tiger plays like Wednesday a rested Aaron Baddeley may well see him off. but it’s unlikely. Casey’s duel is the interesting one. Betfair initially priced the Englishman the favourite, but K J Choi is now viewed marginally the more likely to win. The numbers give it to the Korean, but he almost let it slip on Thursday and Casey has strong match play form.

Hogan bracket - Stenson and Boo Weekley: Jonathan Byrd is in full flight and coasted Thursday while Stenson is battle weary. But if he can stop sending balls off at right angles to where they should go he should still outgun the American. I’m sticking with the inestimable Weekley to edge the old pals act with Woody Austin.

Player bracket - Appleby and Rod Pampling: I hesitate to pick Appleby because he’s due an off day and Justin Leonard has been quietly impressive against two tough match play opponents. But when in doubt go for the distance man. Vijay Singh has done better than I expected, but he’s gone the distance and then some while Pampling is on a roll and in a comfort zone.

Snead bracket - Angel Cabrera and Colin Montgomerie: These two are the most difficult to pick so, just to be perverse, I’ve gone for the outsiders. Steve Stricker has the edge in stats but has gone into overtime twice while Cabrera has always had something left in the tank. As for Monty, when I heard an American commentator Thursday suggest he had “outstayed his welcome” my Scottish blood spilled over. Does this person not know of Monty’s amazing match play history in the Ryder Cup? And he’s clearly in Ryder mode here. It’s my patriotic duty to back him in the face of such a slur. Not a Widows and Orphans gamble though. Form-wise Stewart Cink stands out as much as the betting suggests.

And away in Mexico: They’re off on round two of this rather dull Mayakoba Classic competition. For now I’ll just cheer Kenneth Ferrie (with my English hat on this time) just a shot off the pace and leading the field for finding greens. He has form, ranking fourth here in my stats for accuracy off the tee and greens in regulation combined.

But the thought intriguing me most is that John Daly, a shot further back, will either do his customary imitation of a tower block being demolished or sneak a win again this decidedly second level opposition. He’s sixth for putting although his irons are looking very rusty.

WGC Accenture Match Play round one: Thank your lucky stars for Tiger Woods

Wow! Wasn’t that lucky! No, not Tiger Woods’s recovery against J B Holmes, but the fact that his survival saves the competition from going prematurely flat. However, I throw the word in as it seems from comments I read there is a conspiracy afoot, of which I am apparently a part, to say everything Phil Mickelson does is lucky and everything Woods does is down to sheer brilliance. Is there a problem with that?

I jest - a bit. I have to, because even Tiger admits Wednesday’s result owed something to luck, mainly the way Holmes opened the door with a three-putt mistake on the 15th. But hang on a minute: birdie, birdie, birdie, eagle down the back nine wasn’t luck. That was as gutsy a comeback from the slough of despond as you could hope for. That’s what marks Tiger out - even when he’s as bad as he was Wednesday, he’s good. Whereas against the emotionally challenged Pat Perez, Lefty was, weeeell, a wee bit …

Moving swiftly on, the other big question is what Ernie Els is going to do about his carbon footprint, which must have exploded to planet-threatening proportions with his utterly pointless journey across the pond for this event. Why on earth did he go? The extent of Jonathan Byrd’s victory was embarrassing. Stick to Wentworth Ernie.

So, who might have surprises up their sleeves on day two, apart from everyone?

Jones bracket: K J Choi’s numbers outclass Ian Poulter, but the Englishman is not so easy to write off in match play. While Paul Casey has the numbers on his side, who is to say what giant-slayer Bradley Dredge (Els last year, Rory Sabbatini this) will throw at him?

Hogan bracket: None of these matches are easy, but I see Boo Weekley in particular giving Sergio Garcia a hard time.

Player bracket: Now we’ll see how lucky Lefty is as he goes up against an in-form Stuart Appleby who, like Mickelson, comes to this from three top tens this year (although not a win). Neither is a match play star, but Phil has the slight edge. Niclas Fasth could well put one over on Vijay Singh, who struggled into overtime for Wednesday’s result.

Snead bracket: Charles Howell III is the marginal favourite, but Colin Montgomerie is on a roll and keyed up by his need to get up the rankings and into the Ryder Cup team.

Meanwhile, down Mexico way: A small tournament is taking place of which few players of any magnitude are taking part and hardly many more punters care about it. I’m steering clear of the Mayakoba Classic at least until the end of the week because of the exceptionally poor media coverage, the complete lack of in-play stats and the fact that with so few betting on it liquidity is almost nil.

However, a quick look over my numbers, with an emphasis on accuracy off the tee and iron work, makes Joe Durant a worthy favourite as he tops the bill. His putting lets him down, as it does Fred Funk, another year older and deeper in riches after last year’s victory, but with equally chart-topping stats otherwise. He might be up for a repeat if his back is up to it.

Peter Lonard was third here last year and after three missed cuts played himself back into shape with a 22nd place last week. It must be those other results that put him at the bottom of the stats table.

It’s not often you will catch the likes of Steve Marino at the top of a betting list, but he shares top spot with Durant on the back of an eighth place here last year and some decent stats not entirely backed up by the results they achieved this season. The same could be said in spades for Robert Gamez, who on paper is another contender. One player I wouldn’t fancy is Bubba Watson, as I think he might have some issues with the rough.

Matt Kuchar and Parker McLachlin did quite well here last year and are having good seasons and, if the wind kicks up like last year, don’t be surprised if last year’s playoff loser Jose Coceres is back in the hunt.

WGC Accenture Match Play preview: Not such a lottery as people think

Welcome to the wacky world of match play. Or at least that is what everyone is trying to have us a believe with headlines like ‘A lottery’, ‘Crap shoot’, ‘Tales of the unexpected’, even ‘March madness’ (did I miss something?). I used to think the same, but looking over the Match Play records of our contestants I’m not so sure. Many of them seem the model of consistency, although the jury is still out on the true effect of moving to the desert.

Mike Weir for instance has never gone past the 3rd round in seven tries and only once has Ernie Els got past round two, again in seven goes. But Tiger Woods (who else?) has two wins, a runner up and quarter final from only one more outing. Or how about David Toms (a win, beaten finalist, quarter finalist and three more third rounds from eight tries) or Nick O’Hern (three quarter-finals in four outings).

So it actually looks as if quality - in a match play format - does out. Let’s face it, not many duffers could play at the top of their game over six straight rounds of knockout competition against the best in the world.

Which is one way of saying that I am resisting the urge to take on Woods this week - probably one of the few realistic chances of beating him with my betting bank all season. He’s not gone past round three for the last three years, but in the kind of form he is now he has never looked more likely to repeat his previous successes. J B Holmes in the first round is for my money a much harder test than the seedings suggest, and Tiger is still not yet the super-machine who doesn’t have a bad round. But there is a level of determination to his golf this year that suggests if there was ever a year to win this is it.

Those I most like other than Tiger are Toms, who warmed up nicely at Los Angeles last week, defending champion Henrik Stenson, who is at the top of his game this season, Adam Scott, a winner already this year, Steve Stricker, a previous winner in fine form, Stephen Ames, who’s always one to pull a surprise when you least expect it, and Padraig Harrington, twice a quarter finalist and playing well enough last week to inspire hope.

The betting for the individual matches looks largely on the button, but there’s bound to be upsets somewhere, so where?

Jones bracket: Mark Calcavecchia has the numbers to overturn Aaron Baddeley if he can get his putter going. Rory Sabbatini is showing signs of fatigue and might just be picked off by Welshman Bradley Dredge. Robert Karlsson’s figures outdo Paul Casey, although the Englishman is bit of a match play dab hand.

Hogan bracket: Retief Goosen and Andres Romero are both down on their luck so I can’t put a cigarette paper between them. Europe’s new wunderkind Martin Kaymer could have a handful in Boo Weekley; on paper they look about evenly matched.

Player bracket: After a bright start Justin Leonard has been going backwards, while Geoff Ogilvy hasn’t been going anywhere at all. But this would be the perfect opportunity for the Australian to rediscover the form that has him a winner and beaten finalist in his only two outings in this event. And O’Hern hasn’t reached three quarter-finals for nothing, so there’s a possibility he’ll give Scott Verplank a run for his money.

Snead bracket: I’m not convinced Hunter Mahan has it sewn up against Richard Sterne in one of the few head-to-heads between WGC Match Play virgins. And while Luke Donald looked well on top of things at Los Angeles last week, he is outgunned on paper by Nick Dougherty on a course that favours bombers.

Northern Trust Open round four: Why Mickelson is Lucky Phil

Imagine Phil Mickelson as Tina Turner, only this time singing “What’s luck got to do with it?” I know, it’s a stretch, but the real question is how much he’s entitled to sing it.

He was, after all, extremely lucky with the weather, missing out on the winds that allowed him and 54 others who kicked off Thursday morning through to the weekend, against just 23 who started Thursday afternoon. He was also very lucky in just having one inexperienced opponent to finish off on the Sunday. It was Jeff Quinney’s four-bogey stretch down the back nine that sealed the deal rather than anything particularly startling from Mickelson.

You can argue that as things toughened up over the weekend and the greens got noticeably firmer, Lefty showed fortitude where all bar Quinney wilted. To a degree you also make your own luck - there are few players who could come back to win from being beaten in a playoff and then missing a cut. I believe this is at least the third time Mickelson has won straight after an MC.

But for all the growing confidence Lefty expresses in his game, it doesn’t seem to have moved on a huge amount from last year. In its mercurial patterns, it has probably gone a bit backwards. His stats this week rather echo his visit here last year, except this time he was shorter off the tee, found fewer fairways, and hit marginally fewer greens. It was only his putting that showed an improvement.

Goodness knows what the comparison would have been like if he had been in the crew that had the worst of the weather.

PS: One other interesting tidbit on Lefty’s game came in his final media conference when he revealed that because he was using softer balls he couldn’t hear the sound of impact properly and overcompensated with his putting stroke. So he changed the insert on his putter to increase the noise level and voila! - better putting. Think I’ll stick to my simple metal head though, if it’s all the same. But there’s an interesting read-up on the subject here.

Northern Trust Open round three: Three defeats in a row for Mickelson? Unthinkable!

The golfing gods left Phil Mickelson to his own devices Saturday, which at least means we have the vestiges of a competition on day four. This is now widely taken to be a virtual match play, quite appropriate given next week’s little shindig in Tucson.

Lefty is obviously the heavy favourite with his one-shot advantage over the intrepid Jeff Quinney. The market has already made its mind up, pricing Mickelson at 1.4 to Quinney’s 4.4. But hold on a minute, that’s not as resounding a vote of confidence as you might think. To put it in perspective, Tiger Woods was 1.6 when he was two shots behind in round one of the Buick Invitational. Not quite so confident then.

The market must know Mickelson is 18 from 25 for winning from a 54-hole lead. But one of the upsets was on this very field last year, and his golf is still very patchy, like an audition for The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Face it, when the going got tough on Saturday - harder pin positions, firmer greens and the first troublesome wind Lefty’s faced (but don’t get me started on the weather or we’ll be here all day) - he let a 4-shot lead slip to 1.

You could argue that Quinney got lucky with his ace on the sixth, and that while Mickelson was at least keeping his head and firing another under-par round, most of Saturday’s challengers were playing lead roles in a film about hara-kiri. The Riviera seems to delight in setting players up just to knock them down again. Statistically speaking the course played as hard Saturday as it has all week: on a like-for-like basis scores were only marginally better than the windy awfulness of Friday morning.

Quinney rather fell to pieces as last season wore on, but he had a splendid run of west coast results, better in truth than this year. One of those was the FBR open, where he actually held the lead over rounds two and three. He didn’t disgrace himself on the Sunday, firing a handy 68. Trouble was two others fizzed past him with 64 and 63 (Aaron Baddely and John Rollins, who interestingly is in today’s final threesome). But at least it shows he has the capacity to keep his head, which I suspect is what it is going to come down to.

In pure golfing terms Quinney wins hands down: he has found more greens than Mickelson, his putting and distance play are on a par, and he managed to find far more fairways. He has also been a model of consistency all week. which is the last thing you can say about Lefty. So like the market, I harbour doubts about Mickelson’s ability to get the job done.

But in the end I’m going to be as daft as I was last week and go for him to win. It’s too much to imagine that the next best thing to Tiger Woods could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory twice in the space of three weeks and miss the cut in between.

Northern Trust Open round two: Just Heavenly for Phil Mickelson

It is as if all the heavenly bodies have aligned for Phil Mickelson to win this. Maybe they had a meeting up in Heavenly HQ and decided Lefty couldn’t do it by himself. Did he get the best of the weather or what? At least he acknowledges the fact.

Oh and a big thank you to the weather people for getting that one wrong again. The day was turned on its head as the tricky winds from Thursday afternoon blew over into Friday morning. The difference is quite startling: those who went out early Thursday averaged 71.3 and came back Friday afternoon at 70.9. Their unfortunate compadres averaged 73.7 on Thursday afternoon and returned Friday morning in a whopping 74. You would suspect the mix of players might explain some of the difference, but clearly the weather left an indelible mark.

It’s equally apparent Mickelson sharpened up his act considerably Friday. He puts his improvement down to making putts - and when they start dropping in from upwards of 50ft you can see his point - but his overall putting figures were about the same over the two days. In round two, though, he dramatically improved his accuracy of the tee and, more to the point, the ability to find greens (43rd in round one, 6th in round two). So now he sits on a comfortable 4-shot lead with just 36 holes left to snatch the one that keeps getting away from both him and Tiger Woods.

The punting masses have already counted their chickens and hatched a turkey of a price at just over 1.5. I can’t work out if that factors in the potential for a “Winged Foot moment” or not, but I doubt it.

It certainly looks a daunting prospect for his rivals, although Robert Allenby is starting to find the comfort zone with his irons.

As for K J Choi, he really has no excuses for shooting two over Friday as he enjoyed just about the same weather conditions as Lefty. He lost his way off the tee Friday, hitting only four fairways, and his putter went awol as well.

And then there’s the weather: we are assured Saturday will be as sunny as you like with minimal wind. So is that ark ready yet?

Northern Trust Open round one: Will the wind blow Choi off course?

It’s been 10 long years since a first-round winner went on to take the spoils at the Riviera country club - Billy Mayfair, who you will note is hovering three shots off the pace after round one. But if there’s a man to follow in his footsteps it’s K J Choi, who will almost certainly go into the second round as leader. He’s three from four for converting first round leads into wins.

If only it were that easy. The course was up to its usual windy tricks Thursday and Choi enjoyed by far the most benign conditions of the day. The stroke average of those who, like him, went out in the morning was a tad under 71.3. Those that completed their rounds in the afternoon averaged more than two shots worse at 73.5. Looks like we’re in for more of the same Friday which means Choi and his afternoon chums had better watch out.

That, of course, will include Phil Mickelson, three shots back after another patchy round, Chad Campbell, Kevin Na and Luke Donald. Perhaps the most likely to succeed of that lot is Campbell, who likes a bit of wind.

As expected, finding the relatively small greens was the key ingredient and Choi mastered the discipline well, ranking second overall. None of the overnight top four ranked worse than seventh for greens in regulation. As usual, though, we had an exception that proved the rule: Alex Cejka sitting alongside Mickelson was 116th for GIR. Deadly aim with driver and putter made the day for him.

Interesting that the best all-round figures came from John Daly, a shot further back - top 20 for everything except accuracy off the tee. But he is also likely to face an afternoon howler Friday - another spectacular Daly implosion anyone?.

And guess who was making hay in the worst of the wind Thursday? Our favourite rookie Dustin Johnson, three under with three first round holes still to go.

PS: I appreciate the wind made things tough in the afternoon, but quite why that prevented them finishing the first round before nightfall leaves me puzzled and annoyed. I can understand if weather halted play, but I’m not aware of that. Buck up guys.

Northern Trust Open preview: Who needs Tiger Woods with this lineup?

Tiger Woods? Who he? We should thank our lucky stars he’s not in this competition so’s we don’t have to talk constantly about the battle for second place. As it is we have the cream from the two big tours clashing in one of the season’s more up-market events.

What we learn from the past is that you need a whacking driver, nifty irons and the usual fiery putter. Accuracy off the tee is not vital, although the rough is no picnic. Trouble is you are spoilt for choice: there are more in-form players and/or past winners than you can shake a nine-iron at. And a blustery wind on the first two days at least could upset the applecart.

Phil Mickelson: The favourite lost this one last year with a spectacular collapse down the back nine. Sound familiar? How can we forget how he missed the cut last week after going round a par 5 in 11? He might be the punters’ favourite, but he ain’t PGA Punter’s favourite with that frustrating combination of superb and rank golf in the same round. None of his stats rank him higher than 60th in this competition. He’s got to come good some time, but who knows when?
Adam Scott: Our first chance this year on American soil to see the man Butch Harmon tells us will give Tiger a run for his money. Scott impressed with his recent win in the Middle East and was a winner here three years ago. Surprisingly he never figured last year, slinking home in 69th place.
Rory Sabbatini: Another past winner with a largely excellent track record here. In my book he should already be a winner this year, but was disappointing in his last outing - 34th at the FBR Open. His current stats say yes (ish).
Jim Furyk: The exception that proved the rule last year, although even his challenged driver kept him about a third of the way down the distance charts. He made up for that by only missing 9 fairways all week. Furyk has been ultra-subdued this season, but 14th place last week suggests he is warming to the task.
Vijay Singh: Considering how he threw it away last week, and the fact that the rest of his season has been rank, I’m not sure where the notion comes from that second place in the world rankings is a straight fight between him and Lefty. Best he’s done in his last four outings here is 18th - and that was eight years ago.
Padraig Harrington: 7th last year after leading up to the half-way stage, he had as I recall an electric opening round. He was a bit stiff last week and needs to work on his irons - they actually got worse as last week went on.
K J Choi: Fifth here five years ago, and looks to be getting his rhythm back after losing concentration following his early victory. His approach work is a big plus here, but he needs to pay attention to his putting.
Justin Rose: Why isn’t Butch Harmon putting him forward as the next great Tiger-beater? Because he’s a great golfer but not a great winner in the mould of his contemporary Scott. It’s all in the mind. Past results and his current stats suggest this will be a nice little warm-up but probably not a lot more.
Lee Westwood: Perhaps the hottest player on the European circuit, so it will be interesting to see how he performs this side of the Pond. Was 5th here two years ago.
Charles Howell III: His performances this season suggest he could still be battling to keep his title come Sunday. He’s pretty handy at finding greens and his putter is in reasonable shape.

To complicate matters, there are plenty of other interesting possibilities: Mike Weir has won here twice and made an impressive recovery from his bad start last week. Robert Allenby is another past winner (3rd last year) with more than half decent stats - needs to polish his putter though. People are put off by the recent performances here of Stuart Appleby, but he did come third four years ago and his two outings this season have both been top ten.

There’s loads more likely lads down the pack too, but two are definitely worth a mention: Dustin Johnson is posting fine figures for everything except accuracy off the tee and his 7th last week was the best of an already impressive rookie season. Finally there’s Anthony Kim, whose season has been a bit more up and down, but when he played this event for the first time last year he finished an impressive 9th. It’s been a bit of a struggle finding greens at times, but he’s top 10 for putting and distance off the tee.

AT&T Pebble Beach round four: Singh's collapse burns foolhardy punters

If you’ve ever monitored an in-play betting market or tables like the ones I produce, you might wonder who the generous souls are that lay players right down to the wire when they are clearly home and hosed. The squeals of anguish and gentle sobbing of Vijay Singh backers who didn’t “lay off” their profits when his price hit the floor Sunday will give you a strong clue.

Singh’s price went right down to 1.05 amid such complacent forum statements as “Who on earth is going to beat him?” and “All over … can’t imagine him losing from here". Heck, even the broadcast commentators were handing it to the Fijian well before the turn (although XM radio does this so often these days I’m beginning to see a useful betting pattern emerging). So rather than playing safe and laying back to cover their bets at minimum cost, many punters sat on their hands until it was too late and Singh had bogeyed his way to disaster down the back nine.

Even so, to be a Singh layer on Sunday surely called for nerves of steel as he turned the corner for home with a three shot lead. It wasn’t his putting that let him down - that was the best it had been all week - nor in truth his irons, though he had by far the worst day for finding greens at just 67%. It was three errant tee shots that left him high and dry (the bogey on the 14th was just sheer bad luck). So we saw something very rare in golf - a Vijay “choke” as his swing went to pieces.

You have to applaud Steve Lowery’s aggressive pursuit of the great man - the only player of the leading pack who seemed to have a clue what to do. Even he must have thought the gods were against him, though, when Singh produced that miracle playoff shot to dig his ball out of the bunker and get up and down for par. Lowery’s answering 10ft putt for victory was a superb pressure play.

What a rum tournament that was though, even by pro-am standards, with none of the big names coming to the party until Singh decided to take charge on Saturday. What with Ernie Els flopping elsewhere, you start to despair of anyone giving Tiger Woods a half decent run for his money this season.

Maybe when they have honed their craft at this level a bit more it will instead be one of the intriguing new crop of players: the likes of Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Nicholas Thompson and Y E Yang who did so well this week, although lacking the killer bite. They were either overawed by proceedings Sunday or maybe just playing safe to protect their earnings. Once they have got some money under their belts, I trust they will note how Lowery struck out fearlessly to beat the unbeatable.

AT&T round three: It's hard to see past Singh

Saturday was a tale of two putters. Phil Mickelson went from 26 putts per round on Friday to 33 (and nearly 2 putts per green in regulation) while Vijay Singh went from 32 putts in round two to 28 on Saturday (1.6 PPG). Not hard to figure who’s top of the leaderboard and who missed the cut.

Mickelson’s dramatic exit must be especially hard because the rest of his game was clearly coming round. He actually equalled Singh for finding greens Saturday, topping 80 per cent for only the second round this season. His accuracy off the tee was almost the same. But in the face of a really bad putting day he pushed it on the 14th with appalling consequences - 11 strokes on a par 5! Lefty’s season came off the rails big time at that moment.

He sounds remarkably complacent about his troubles. Admittedly he got off to a bad start with that illness, but so far this season he averages just 61 per cent for accuracy off the tee, 66 per cent for greens in regulation, 28 putts per round (and 1.8 putts per GIR), and even his distance figures are nothing to shout home about at an average of just over 280. These are nowhere near where the next best thing to Tiger Woods should be.

Lefty has played some really great golf this season, some of it in this competition. But he hasn’t played enough of it.

Then again neither had Singh until his putter suddenly fizzed into life on Saturday. Maybe he read my suggestion that once he worked out which end of it was up he’d do just fine! Question is, of course, which putter do we see in round four?

Those around Vijay don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence: veterans for whom victory is a distant and infrequent memory, or rookies untested in the Sunday pressure cooker at this level.

The omens stack up for Vijay too. There was a time when players thought nothing of zipping in to win from three or four shots back. But not since 2003, when the Sunday morning leader has invariably gone on to claim the spoils. And the pressure will be on his co-leader Dudley Hart, who desperately needs the money to gain exempt status for this year (1st or 2nd should do).

Vijay did fluff his lines at last year’s Canadian Open when he was the Sunday morning leader, but that was to Jim Furyk. So it’s a brave man that takes Vijay on in the market Sunday. Let’s face it, even when his putting was rubbish this week he hit under par. It could need a brave - and probably lucky - round to beat him.

AT&T Pebble Beach round two: Does anyone want to win this?

I never had Padraig Harrington or Phil Mickelson down as shy, retiring types, but what else can explain their reluctance to join proceedings at the top of the table? Of the heavyweights in this competition, it’s still down to good old Vijay Singh to growl at the leaders from three shots off the pace.

But it is a growl rather than a roar. It says something for the lack of bite to this competition so far that his putting was actually worse in round two. He now ranks 152nd for putts per round for goodness sake, and that shouldn’t be anywhere near the winner’s circle. It’s only his chart-topping iron work that is keeping him in the frame. Mind you, if he does finally twig which end of the putter is up - look out!

Come on someone, never mind partying with the celebs, show your mettle on moving day. Maybe Davis Love III is well enough recovered from his injury to launch a challenge from alongside Singh. Players have come back from seven or eight shots behind in the past to win, so even Mickelson is still in with a chance if he gathers his wits, his irons and his putter about him.

Otherwise yho you might think J B Holmes is well placed to ram home his Ryder Cup message with a rare back-to-back win, or Jason Day to confirm his credentials as the Tiger-hunter-in-waiting, although we’ve seen hot flushes from him before without the killer blow.

And it’s not so long ago (well, two seasons) that Tim Herron notched a victory. Lumpy’s another whose putter is not particularly hot, so maybe that actually makes him a solid bet in these peculiar times.

AT&T Pebble Beach round one: Mickelson needs soome putting practice

Memo to self: Steve Elkington simply doesn’t do the AT&T Pebble Beach, okay? Instead of looking at his racy start to the season and the fine set of stats it has produced, I should have been looking back over his last six Pebble Beach efforts: MC-69-MC-MC-69-46. That’s more like it. There’s one thing you can say for his scorecard Thursday - it’s very colourful, with the two blue birdies, the four orange bogeys and the two red double bogeys. As the weekly golf column says: A Lesson Learned.

It was the most glaring of the strange crop of results from round one. Not a few in-form and high profile players seem to have come a cropper, Jonathan Byrd and Mike Weir being the most prominent apart from Elkington. What’s going on? It’s not as if the weather is bad. Everyone seemed to be whistling a happy tune and there was not a lot of troublesome wind until perhaps late in the day when exposed parts succumbed to the sea breezes. The courses played just about normal (Pebble Beach 72.3 stroke average, Poppy Hills 72.8 and Spyglass Hill 73.2).

I thought I would be writing a lament for lost golfing souls, including Phil Mickelson as he raced to four over. But then Lefty, at least, turned it around in dramatic fashion with some more superlative golf down the back nine. So at least he has something to look forward to. He is five shots off the pace, but there’s three rounds to go and the top of the leaderboard looks vulnerable. He needs to look at his irons, which have let him down at vital moments, and his putting needs some heavy homework. He’s barely inside the top 100 with his flat stick.

Interesting that the best performing heavyweight on day one was Vijay Singh. But I wouldn’t hold your breath. His iron work has put him top of the heap for finding greens, but he’s not even top 100 with his putter and that’s going to keep on costing him.

The strangest thing about round one is the exception that maybe proves the rule. History tells us greens in regulation is the key ingredient - apart from putting of course - and, by and large, round one bears that out. But then there’s Roland Thatcher in joint second place who is 146th for GIR - he only managed to find half of them. A hot putter certainly saved his day.

AT&T Pebble Beach preview: Time for Phil Mickelson to deliver

Over the last two weeks Phil Mickelson’s golf has veered from the sublime to the ridiculous. A quick look at his stats suggests he’s still a long way off the top of his game. But there isn’t much ridiculous about the 6th and 2nd places (first in regular play) he has earned in that fortnight. Tiger Woods it ain’t, but it’s emphatically the next best thing.

No surprise then that he is the hot pick for a tournament where he is the defending champion and three-time winner. Lefty loves Pebble Beach in the way Tiger loves Torrey Pines and must really fancy his chances this week.

Mickelson will know better than anyone, though, that he must improve with his irons. Length is not a problem on these three courses but you need your wits about you to hit the small greens and Lefty looks a bit weak in that department. In fact in every key discipline he doesn’t rank higher than 46th (putting) even in this relatively weak field.

So who’s he got to beat?

Jim Furyk: He’s been going backwards this season, but if he’s going to get in the groove it might as well be here, where he’s had a couple of top tens already. His iron play is in good enough shape to make him a strong factor.
Mike Weir: The heat has gone after the promising start at the Mercedes. But, like Furyk, if there’s a tournament to reignite the flame it’s this one, where he’s been top ten five times since 2000 and top five three times. Both his GIR and putting stats are in fine fettle.
Padraig Harrington: He only has a 30th place to show in this tournament and since this is his season opener there’s no way on earth I would back him. Same goes for Davis Love III, who is attracting much excitement with his return from an ankle injury. Sure he’s won this twice, but I need to see a bit of his post-injury game before I put any hard-earned on him.
Justin Leonard: Is this where he stops frustrating me? Ignoring the demons who say enough’s enough, I still go with the stats that say his game is tailor made for these tracks. He’s top five for putting, finding greens and accuracy off the tee. He’s had three top tens out of four this season. Quite what last Sunday’s 77 was all about I don’t know. Come on Justin!
Vijay Singh: This will surely tell us if the growing doubts about his game are well-founded. He’s won here, come second twice and notched two other top 10s (plus an 11th) since 2000. But this season’s disappointments were capped by last week’s missed cut. That will have stung him and he’s certainly got the irons to do well here. It’s the rest of his game that’s so off and he might as well leave his putter at home and try to blow the balls in.
Daniel Chopra: He’s got three top 20s in a row here, but has gone dramatically off the boil since winning the Mercedes. Still, his stats suggest he can at least go close again.
Hunter Mahan: A lot of people seem to be excited about him and he is top 20 in his last two visits. But he missed the cut last week and the quickest of glances at his putting figures has me quoting Amy Winehouse: ‘No, no, no’.

Based mainly on their good iron work, and handiness with the flat stick, there are a few others I’ll be watching. In no particular order they are:

Charlie Wi: The Korean upstaged his fellow countryman K J Choi with a very solid performance last week and he ranks 19th for greens in regulation and 5th for putting in this crowd. In fact all round he’s no higher than 40th.
Robert Gamez: 11th place three years ago shows he can do it and, like Wi, is currently boasting some tidy stats that helped him to 16th at the Hope Classic (which you will immediately spot is a similar pro-am format). Could at least be a trading opportunity.
Steve Elkington: Distance off the tee is his only problem and that should not trouble him here. With 5-13-4 so far this season I like the look of him. The only negative is his lousy record here in the past.
Kevin Sutherland: Not quite such exciting stats, but its only a mater of degrees and he was second here last year and 4th last week.