FBR Open round three: J B Holmes looks neat to repeat

If I am later than usual it’s because I have only just recovered from Tiger’s blistering recovery to win the Dubai Classic. Six birdies on the back nine left Ernie Els crumbling in his wake. It’s barely credible.

What is even less credible, though, is that something similar will happen at Scottsdale later in the day. You have to go back to the year 2000 to find anyone winning from more than two back on the Sunday, when Tom Lehman came from three behind. Since then two players have come from two behind, one from a shot adrift and four overnight winners have hung on for victory.

One of those, of course was J B Holmes who looks fair set to repeat his 2006 win on the back of a two-shot overnight lead. If his game holds up the way it did two years ago he should have enough to hold off Charles Warren, still desperately seeking his first Tour win. But he’ll have to watch the mercurial Jonathan Byrd, who has already gone round a shot lower than Holmes this week.

Clearly Scottsdale “fits the eye” of Holmes, who has hardly done a lot since his win to suggest a particularly inspiring career. Yet on that day he played some absolutely masterful shots to seal a seven-stroke victory in just his sixth professional competition. Commentators suggest the key to his success is his distance off the tee, but surely the fact that he leads the putting table is a bit of a clue.

Add to that the fact that he’s now been round this course nine times and only once failed to register in the 60s - the opening 74 that effectively kissed goodbye to last year’s title defence - and he looks pretty strong.

If, however, the incredible does happen the best person to catch him could be Justin Leonard, especially if the wind starts to pick up as the weather people are suggesting. Still needs to get to grips with his putter though. Of course Phil Mickelson lurks alongside him, capable of a charge when the mood takes him. Let’s hope they both give a bit more than two years ago when they rather gave up against Holmes on the Sunday.

Shame about Camilo Villegas. At one point early Saturday he was the sole leader on 10 under, but by the finish he was seven shots back. Saturday was indeed too long a day for him.