Buick Invitational round four: Is Tiger Woods slam price a dunk or duck?

The people entitled to feel really pleased right now are those who gave themselves a Christmas present of a bet on Tiger Woods for the grand slam. At that time they would have got a price somewhere a little south of 30. After just one outing by the great man you’ll struggle to get on at 16 (it’s 14.5 on Betfair). So they are already as happy as pigs in the proverbial, able to lock in a hefty profit, albeit one they might have to wait until August to collect.

Given Tiger’s absolute mastery of the Buick Invitational, despite Sunday’s wind-blown wobbly, is the price fair for someone to win supposedly the four toughest events of the season? It suggests an average price of around 2.2 for each of them, about the same as he opened for the Buick. But they are not the Buick, which clearly suits his eye and then some. Having said that, I see he’s now down to evens for this week’s event in Doha. So much for jet lag then.

So, 2.2 for the (British) Open? Sure, it’s balmy Birkdale rather than cranky Carnoustie. Masters? In his present form probably okay (he was 2.8 last year). Three-in-a-row at the PGA Championship? He was more than 3 for it last year, but this year’s course should suit and if he’s already won the other three the weight of money on him would probably make 2.2 extremely generous.

It’s the US Open that strikes me as the odd one out. Even in a good year it’s an accident waiting to happen with its cruel rough and polished greens. Torrey Pines in the summer will be nothing like it played this week, so anyone betting on that basis should retire to a darkened room immediately.

I just wonder if the Open administrators, while not going out of their way to help Tiger achieve his ambition (perish the thought!), might not want to be seen mean-mindedly doing everything in their powers to stop him. They have already been stung by criticisms of recent courses, so they say the rough won’t be quite so rough and the greens not quite so ball-resistant. Sounds like they are giving Tiger his best opportunity in a while.

I should declare an interest: I’m not a great fan of this sort of bet because it locks your cash away unproductively for a long, long time. But if I was interested, I think I would still leave it alone. Tiger’s struggles in the wind Sunday showed he is still mortal, for all that he was already home and hosed. What will happen to his price if he stumbles in the Gulf this week? Or drops another game or two before the Masters? Or encounters what one might call “unforeseen circumstances"? For my mind there’s a lot more uncertainty out there than is factored into the current price.

PS: Well done to Tiger though for absolutely creaming the opposition at the Buick. He says his game still has ways to go, but if that happens we’ll effectively end up with two tournaments every time: Tiger against the course (and himself), and the rest of the field chasing the leftovers. Can’t say that sounds a load of fun based on Sunday’s “battle” for second place. Stewart Cink duly threw it away as Ryuji Imada cracked in the best round of the day to snatch it.

But Phil Mickelson warmed up nicely enough to warrant close attention this week, while Rory Sabbatini again impressed on a course I didn’t think suited his game. Justin Leonard has bounced back well from his Hope disappointment and like Rory must be worth a win this season, surely?

PPS: Yet again no prizes to the massed ranks of US weather people, who got Sunday’s weather just about all wrong. Do these folks actually get paid?