Bob Hope Chrysler Classic round four: Justin Leonard must go low again to win

So Justin Leonard, which do you want first, the good news or the bad? Okay, here’s the bad. The local Palm Springs newspaper The Desert Sun thinks you should be aware that in this tournament’s 48-year history only 19 of those leading on Sunday morning have gone on to win. It even handily does the math(s) for you - that’s a success rate of just 39.5%.

Must have been easier in the good old days then, because since the turn of the century that figure has fallen to 37.5 %, with just three winners out of eight events.

Ah yes, you might say, but how many times did the leaders have a 4-stroke advantage over their nearest rivals? Fair point Justin, but on the other hand you can’t hide from the fact that the winner has come from four shots back on the Sunday three times in the last eight years. There’s four people who are four shots back of you, and they are all looking pretty mean.

The good news? Well Justin, the good news is that all you have to do is keep playing just like you have been and they don’t stand a cat in hell’s chance. Your superb 66 Saturday decisively cracked your Classic “curse” (although it was touch and go there for a while, wasn’t it Justin?) and the weather looks like behaving itself again to give you every opportunity to claim your well-deserved victory. The lesson of those 4-stroke whoopings has been that the fourth round leader choked to shoot over par - most spectacularly Justin Rose with a 76 last year - and you aren’t going to do that are you Justin? No, because you’ll remember well how Joe Ogilvie shot one over to let you steal it from three shots back in 2005.

So just keep your cool, go out there and play the game that sees you 2nd for greens in regulation, 5th for putting and 6th for accuracy off the tee (we’ll draw a discreet veil over the distance figures).

And none of the others in that chasing group have done as well as you on the Classic course this week. Oh, except for one guy. Kenny Perry. He shot a 66 too on the Wednesday. Actually, Justin, his all round figures are a touch better than yours - 1st for accuracy, 3rd for putting, 5th for greens in regulation and, um, seventh for distance off the tee (no, don’t cry). You’d best keep an eye on Kenny. Wouldn’t want him adding to the wrong side of that winner’s statistic, eh Justin?.

PS: I see a new golfing term has been invented, and I rather approve. I have never been fond of the word bogey, given its unfortunate nasal associations hereabouts. Now PGATour.com comes to the rescue with the “bogley". Well, it has started tentatively with the “double bogley” but I’m sure once it catches on it’ll do the same with the singular. If you don’t believe me just have a look at any of this week’s scorecards, like this one - unless of course, after reading this, the Tour people get cold feet and put it back to the original. Don’t, I say! Be brave! In time, the world will thank you for it.