Ginn sur Mer Classic round four (ish): Advantage Chopra, but don't bet against a playoff

They’re still at it I see. I’ve heard all the excuses, but I still think a bit more urgency and better organisation could have got this done in regulation. At least the finishing post is finally in sight.

The market is clear that this is still Daniel Chopra’s to lose, for all that he’s done his best to throw it away already. I’m sure he’s been hit by nerves, but some of his decision-making has been rank. The biggest thing in his favour, which explains his price of just under evens, is that he has the extra hole to play, the par 5 that Shigeki Maruyama eagled Sunday to force his way back into contention. Chopra has birdied the hole in all three previous rounds, which is hardly surprising since it’s the easiest hole on the course. So you have to assume a birdie there, meaning that all things being equal he has a one-shot advantage.

Against that however are the nerves and the aggressive way Chopra has been playing, which could still be his undoing. Let’s not forget that he has already bogeyed the final hole once. He has birdied it too, but Fredrik Jacobson has birdied it twice, so there’s a strong possibility of him at least forcing a playoff.

The weakest link on paper looks to be Maruyama, who has earned nothing from the last two holes all week. But that’s to ignore the steely side of a tried and tested warrior back to something like his old self after summer knee surgery. And he did almost birdie the 18th in the first round after hitting to 15ft, so it’s not out of the question. Chopra will need to be back to the kind of form he showed in the first two rounds, or I smell a playoff and a sneaky win for the Japanese.