Turning Stone Championship, round three: Why I worry about Pettersson

Leading the straw-clutchers this Sunday are those playing up the fact that Steve Flesch is not one of the PGA Tour’s most prolific last round scorers. He’s 171st in the Tour list for last round scoring and those figures put him 57th of the 65 left in this competition for whom figures are available. Certainly, on average, he has played his last rounds more than a stroke worse than his immediate challengers.

But it doesn’t take Nobel-level mathematics to work out that a stroke is not four strokes, which is his current lead. To throw this one away, Flesch would have to seize up like he did on the last day of the Reno-Tahoe Open last month. Or did he? A lot is being made of his par round on the Sunday at Reno, when he only won because none of his challengers were up to closing his five-shot gap going into the last round. But that’s the point: the windy conditions made for a difficult day and Flesch’s 72 compared to an average 71.2 last round score for the top 10 finishers. He didn’t freeze, he held his own.

Which is what he should do this Sunday. Face it, he’s not exactly a novice. He’s led into round four seven times before, lost the first five, but won the last two, an indication perhaps that he now understands what it takes on a Sunday. His game would have to crumble dramatically for him to start failing. He clearly loves the course: he’s dropped shots on just one hole and beaten par on at least seven in all three rounds. His average ranking for the four main disciplines is 8th, which includes 1st for hitting greens and 2nd for putting, the two skills that should prove the clinchers this week. And there’ll still be some wind around Sunday. He’s shown at Reno and here how much that suits him.

So why do I still worry about Carl Pettersson? Partly because I put money against him on form at the start of the week, only to see him bear relentlessly down on the lead. He certainly strikes me as the only credible challenger in what the market sees as a three-horse race. I can’t see Charles Warren doing any better than the last time he was in a position to chase Flesch down at Reno, when he picked up just a shot. An in-form Pettersson on the other hand could be a formidable threat and, being the challenger, is in a better position to risk aggressive play. The fact that the two are in the final pairing could also suit Pettersson. A few early birdies might just rattle his partner.

So it’s Flesch’s to lose, but the Swede should at least make it very interesting.