BMW Championship round three: Stricker can outshine Tiger again

How good was that? Steve Stricker’s immaculate performance in Saturday’s third round, with the eagle at the eighth the icing on the cake, reinforces the astonishing transformation in his fortunes. He is only the second player in 10 years to hit all of Cog Hill’s greens in regulation in a single round.

Sunday the revival meets its sternest test. Victory two weeks ago in the Barclays, assured as it was, will be nothing for Stricker against winning Sunday over Tiger Woods. It’s bound to be tough. There’s no way the world number one wants to come second two weeks in a row, and three seasons in a row at Cog Hill. But Mickelson showed how to beat him last week and Stricker has already proved himself the equal of Tiger in their pairing over the first two days.

It’s a pity Aaron Baddeley’s final birdie Saturday robbed us of Woods and Stricker going putter-to-putter in the final pairing. I’m not sure whether that’s done Stricker a favour or not. We all know what Tiger can do to those that play with him, especially on Sunday. It certainly seems to have done for the normally free-flowing Camilo Villegas on Saturday. But Stricker seems at ease with it and may have fed off the extra buzz it would have given him Sunday. The worry about playing with Baddeley, apart from the buzz factor, is the possibility that if the Aussie falters it might rub off on Stricker.

Not that Baddeley might not have his own considerable input. He wields the hottest putter of the trio, which could be critical if as is highly possible this comes down to a flat stick contest. He also matches them for the a quality of his approach shots; it’s his tee shots that are proving a little troublesome. The other negative is that it isn’t only at the US Open that he fails to shine on Sundays.

As for Tiger, we have seen some pretty stunning stuff from him too and only Stricker outshines him in all but distance off the tee. But it has struck me that there has always been an underlying vulnerability to Tiger’s game since his return, always some part misfiring enough to make a difference. That’s why I think his price of just over 1.74 is a bit mean. It’s interesting to note that he has previously never scored four rounds in the 60s in this event.

There is of course an outside chance of a charge from behind, but the only one I take at all seriously is Justin Rose and a five shot deficit makes it a pretty tall order. A sunny day with moderate wind suggests plenty more birdies on offer, but you might expect at least one of the leading trio to share in them. Stricker has been getting better each day.

If the top three play anything like they have been over the preceding three days we are in for an engrossing encounter, in which I give Stricker the slight edge. Mind you, a playoff would be fun.