John Deere Classic preview: Back into unknown territory

An advertisement on the John Deere website invites you to “reach for the stars", which is a trifle unfortunate given the company’s inability to snare many of them for their big bash in Illinois this weekend. It’s not the firm’s fault of course, it’s that pesky Open Championship sucking players to my neck of the woods across the pond ("More tea, Tiger?").

I don’t suppose it’s also got anything to do with the fact that they don’t have shiny black 4x4s to give their golfing heroes? Do they have a bright green tractor parked next to the 17th tee instead? Maybe someone should tell them a combine harvester is not quite the incentive for a hole in one that a shiny red Nissan saloon would be.

I jest, simply as a means of stalling before having to cast my mind to potential winners. This event is as trappy as they come, precisely because the best players have headed for the hills of Scotland. You might think that clears the way for the few big names left, but history teaches us different. Six out of the last 10 winners here were first-timers.

Having said that, this is a golden opportunity for the two players atop the betting tree this week.

Zach Johnson’s two victories this year were in Georgia but in PGA terms this counts as his home course, so he would probably like to win it. But his record here is not brilliant. Nor, more worryingly, are his recent results. Since winning the AT&T Classic he’s gone right off the boil. Johnson’s current stats are not over-impressive either, except for accuracy off the tee, where he tops the field. That’s handy, but if history is a guide the players who handle their irons best will prosper most.

Cue Kenny Perry. It’s small wonder exchange punters have installed him as marginal favourite - he’s the second best shotmaker around this week and on current form is hot with his putter and pretty much on top of his all-round game. That may explain his sudden resurgence with a 3-15-10 record in his last three outings. The only downer is this course will be a bit of a mystery to him, for the first round at least.

But there’s plenty of others with a claim as well. At the top end Lucas Glover’s stats are solid and he comes off two top 20 finishes. But I don’t fancy Tim Clark too much, even though he too comes of two top 20s. His strokeplay figures are poor and he has no course form. A lot of people have high hopes for Anthony Kim, which I do not share; he seems to have gone off the boil recently. Brandt Snedeker, another tipster favourite on the back of his last two top-10 finishes, does not impress me enough with his irons. But there’s a bit of a buzz around Pat Perez, who sneaked a pass to Carnoustie last week and has a previous 4th place here.

Woody Austin has the right kind of game and, although he missed the cut last week on a tough track, he may want to make a point to those attacking him for snubbing the Open Championship. Carl Pettersson has regained some of his old vigour and has a previous top 20 finish here. And you can’t rule out defending champion John Senden. He’s not been having too happy a time recently, but his stats say he’s well capable of a repeat.

In fact the stats also suggest a few of those who ran him close last year might again be in with a shout: Alex Cejka for instance, Jason Gore who came close two weeks ago, or Billy Mayfair. But I don’t include J P Hayes, who came second last year and is a previous winner, but has missed the cut in his last three outings.

Mind you, if you are Brian Bateman, that’s a springboard for success, and it’s just as likely another will leap from obscurity to claim this week’s prize. In which case a tractor would strike me as very appropriate.