AT&T National preview: Does US Open form hold the key?

Okay, that’s enough baby talk. I’m in a desperate rush this week so I’ll cut to the chase - Kent Jones.

He has just about the most perfect set of stats you could imagine for this week’s event: his best this season is a hard-fought 29th at the Byron Nelson, he’s missed the cut 12 times and he doesn’t rank higher that 41st in any of the key disciplines. Admittedly he hasn’t been quite as regular a visitor to Q-school as last week’s winner, whose name escapes me for the moment, but since almost everyone seems to have missed his potential he comes with a tasty price of 760. Remember, you heard it here first.

Guess I haven’t quite got over last week yet. But if the doughty Mr Jones is not to be our winner, working out who is presents the usual problems and then some.

I’ve had too little time to look at this event because of a broadband crisis which at one point forced me to dig out some pigeons left over from World War One (it was either that or smoke signals which I think are banned under the new English legislation). But the blog of Mike Weir’s caddy Brennan Little suggests the Congressional is going to be almost as tough as Oakmont for the US Open (easier greens though). So even more of a lottery than usual then.

The imponderables start to stack up.
Tiger Woods is the favourite (duh!) but he’s had his hands full not just with fatherhood (oops!) but the fact that this is his tournament, needing much of his attention to ensure its success. That can be a big distraction. On the other hand, what with all the July 4 razzmatazz and his new status as a parent (!), wouldn’t he dearly love to win this one. And he was third at the Open. Jury’s out on Tiger I’m afraid.
Phil Mickelson makes a welcome return and we assume that unlike Michelle Wie he has given his wrist enough time to heal. We might hope he’s back to the pre-Open form that had him 3-3-1. A bit of a gamble, but one I quite like.
Jim Furyk still sports surprisingly good stats for one who everyone says is struggling with his putter, and who admitted his irons let him down last week. There’s an essential lack of bite to his game, but he did have enough to come second at the Open.

To be honest, I’m downright dubious about almost everyone. Two others I fear will yet again frustrate are Adam Scott and Justin Rose.

Scott still has me in shock over his St Jude implosion. He then missed the cut at the Open. But he still has a mean set of stats and has course form, coming second at the Booz Allen here in 2005. It’s whether his mind is up to it.

Rose continues to post good results with no cigar to show for them. He’s been top 10 in his last three PGA outings, including 10th at the US Open despite a let-down 76 on Sunday. Come on Justin, pull yourself together.

Others worth watching are Bubba Watson, who’ll be fresh from his fifth at the Open, Fred Funk, in good form and top of the tree for accurate driving, Justin Leonard, unlucky not to earn a playoff last week after bursting back to form, and Jerry Kelly, who must be happy to have squeaked through to Carnoustie and who has had some decent scores recently, including seventh at the Open. And if he can fire up his putter enough, Brian Davis currently looks strong in finding both fairways and greens.

On second thoughts, cancel that. They’re far too good to win. How about Todd Hamilton instead? He’s missed the cut 14 times this season. Perfect!