EDS Byron Nelson round three: Luke's only got to keep his cool

Looks a two-man race Sunday. This tournament’s history is not littered with great last round comeback tales.

Nobody has ever won from more than four back, which already narrows it down to the top four. Only seven have ever come back from more than two shots behind, the last being Jesper Parnevik in 2000. Ian Poulter put in a nifty 65 on Saturday with some accurate driving and superb putting, but he’d have to repeat that just to get ahead of where leader Luke Donald sits now. And surely Michael Allen, this week’s surprise package, won’t repeat his striking 64 on Saturday?

Given the stats I’m a bit amazed Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh are less than 20 to win. Vijay’s a legendary last-round charger, but this season he’s only done it the once with a 64 at the FBR open. He did hit a 65 on the final day here two years ago, but even that would only put him level with Donald as things stand. Given the way Mickelson’s game has been improving this week he looks more likely, but even he would have to hope Donald or Scott Verplank don’t achieve any forward momentum.

Nerves are the only thing that can mess Donald up Sunday. He’s been steady as a rock so far. He tops the field for hitting fairways and is seventh for greens in regulation, the two key stats. His policy of chipping the unpredictable greens where possible also seems to be paying off.

Verplank is chasing an emotional victory at what he regards as a fifth master because of his long association with it and his regard for Byron Nelson. The problem with emotion is it can be a two-edged sword. Good luck to him but I think Donald will edge it. The real question is whether a price of around evens makes it worth finding out. I don’t think so.

But I’d certainly love to find out what happend to some of Saturday’s hot contenders. Brett Wetterich’s demise doesn’t surprise me and it’s not hard to fathom that youthful inexperience got the better of Anthony Kim as an attempt to gatecrash the party left him seven over.

But Sean O’Hair’s four over round is a shocker considering how strong a contender he had been. Guess Saturday really did sort the men from the boys.