Shell Houston Open round three: Watson needs all the birdies he can get Sunday morning

Just a quick glance at the third round stats tells the story of Saturday’s dramatic shift in fortunes. No, it wasn’t the course playing longer after Saturday’s storm to create a bomber’s paradise. Second-placed Jeff Maggert’s no B52.

It was the softened greens wot dunnit, enabling players to attack them and transforming ordinary Joes into hot putters - Bubba Watson 20 putts per round and 1.3 putts per GIR (against 28 and 1.6 Friday), Maggert 20 and 1.36 (32 and 2.0); Johnson Wagner 26 and 1.5 (33 and 1.9), and so it goes on.

There’s much more to it, though, for Watson who, when he completes his third round Sunday, will presumably trump the course record Wagner set the previous day. Not only is he first for distance off the tee and second for putting, he also ranks fourth for greens in regulation.

The problem for Bubba is stamina. He is not the fittest golfer on the planet and is going to need all his reserves to get up at crack of dawn to finish his third round, then hang around to tee off later in the day for round four. He needs to build as big a cushion as he can in the morning: a lead of three or four is easily unpicked in these birdie-fest conditions and Watson’s price of 2.2 in the market suggests a tentative assessment.

The weather may well play a big part again Sunday: some nasty looking storms were swirling around overnight. That’ll suit Bubba & Co though, as it’ll keep the course nice and damp.

It’s not original thinking to suggest it’s going to come down to a putting competition. On Saturday’s stats that makes it Watson or Maggert, a most unlikely winner of the FedEx St Jude in totally opposite conditions last year. But we’ve already seen what a difference a day makes.

Paul Stankowski, who last won in 97, doesn’t do it for me, but Adam Scott and Stuart Appelby do. Appleby less so because he has the harder task and is still not firing on all cylinders. But Scott is visibly getting his game back in order and posted seven birdies Saturday, although he is still finding the back nine a challenge. He was thankful to have completed his third round to leave himself fresh for the final push.

So if Basher Bubba doesn’t blitz his three holes in the morning, I’m looking to Ambitious Adam to take full advantage.