Shell Houston Open round one: Watch out for Estes as balance of power shifts

Stuart Appleby, Bob Estes, Steve Stricker, Mathias Gronberg - who’s the odd man out? Gronberg of course. He is the only one of last year’s Shell Houston top four not to be in this year’s top ten (including ties) after the first round.

When Appleby failed to make it four wins in a row at the Mercedes his season started to disintegrate. It looks to be back on track this week, though he says himself he’s still not playing quite as well as he once did.

Thursday he goes out into what will be the more difficult afternoon conditions, if the first round is a guide. The PM crew averaged almost a stroke and a half more per round than those playing in the morning (73.18 to 71.69).

The first round stats suggest the key problem was the way the wind dried the greens. The short game was clearly crucial to success, with troubles off the tee offset by the much easier rough this year. Compare the average positions of the top three for putting (16) and greens in regulation (9) with accuracy off the tee (61) and distance (97).

The fact that the fast greens are troublesome rather than the actual wind suggests even Appleby will find the going harder Friday afternoon. Conversely, of course, we might expect to see those who laboured towards dusk on Thursday prosper in round two.

I’m thinking especially about Estes, whose five under in the conditions suggested a strong desire to improve on his second place last year. At a price of 28 he is a play worth considering.

Same goes to a lesser degree for K J Choi. Curiously, he’s on about the same price as Estes. Considering he’s three shots further back, even allowing for the difference in their general standing, either he’s not value or Estes is overpriced.