Honda Classic preview: Furyk, knock-knock-knockin' on heaven's door

Jim Furyk has been knocking on the door so many times this season his knuckles must be bleeding. Three top tens and an 18th (ignore last week’s desert bomb run) suggests someone who really really wants to win something soon.

He should have few better opportunities this week. It’s a long time since the Honda Classic’s new course, the PGA National, saw this level of competition and it has been hardened somewhat since by the sworn enemy of the cruise missile brigade, Jack Nicklaus. Narrow fairways, tough rough, doglegs aplenty - it’s awash with water hazards and mean bunkers. But the biggest obstacle is likely to be the wind. Luke Donald says just getting on the greens is a mission requiring accurate tee shots and precise iron work.

There’s few better in those departments than our Jim: third among this week’s lineup for accuracy and second for greens in regulation in my stats. The problem is his putting - it’ll likely take a bit better then the 1.8 putts per GIR he’s been averaging of late. But that’s a problem with many of those supposedly in with a strong chance this week: great accuracy, super approach work, weak putting. If just one of these guys gets a decent grip of the flatstick, he should be a shoe-in.

Apart from Furyk, who fits the profile best?:

Jose Coceres: Top of the table for accuracy, 15th for GIR, almost bottom of the class for putting. But he must have worked the greens fairly well to get to the playoff down in Mexico last week, so providing he’s not conked out from those exertions he could be a force to be reckoned with.
Joe Durant: two top 20s and two missed cuts this season, but he’s top ten in my charts for accuracy and GIR. Another crummy putter though.
Luke Donald: I wonder of the defending champion has worked out by now how he lost to Aaron Baddeley in the matchplay? He was a bit fortunate in the previous round too and after a bright start his season has become solidly underwhelming. Maybe he’s distracted by his forthcoming nuptials. He still stands out here though with his excellent woods and irons.
Heath Slocum: Okay he’s only top 30-ish in the approach work department but put that with a first-class putter and you might just have a hot combination.
Jeff Quinney: struggles a bit with accuracy but is solid in most departments and tops my putting table for this so he has to be considered - oh, and four top tens in his last four outings.

On the one hand, on the other hand …

David Toms: Respectable stats and two top tens this season, but I get a sense of drift.
Arron Oberholser: Second for accuracy and top for GIR, but he was fairly heftily thumped by Toms last week in his first outing since pulling out of the Mercedes with back trouble.
Scott Verplank: Only his iron work lets him down a bit but, after a bright start, his season seems to be slipping.
Billy Mayfair: His stats say yes, so does a fifth place this season. Its the four missed cuts that sandwich it that worry me.
Johnson Wagner: Caught my eye because he’s third for GIR, top 30 for accuracy and, er, that’s it apart from several modestly decent finishes.
Bernhard Langer: How about a victory by another old git? His stats are half-way decent, albeit from one outing.
Davis Love III: His figures don’t excite, but he has had a couple of fourth places this season - again putting lets him down.

Don’t like

Padraig Harrington: Things have never quite matched up to that amazing opening round of the Nissan. Only his putting seems up to snuff.
Greg Owen: He’ll likely get to the greens fairly comfortably, then wonder why he left his putter back in Britain.
Fred Funk: Wouldn’t you just love to see the old geyser win back-to-back? There are few more accurate drivers. But I fear it’ll more likely be back to back trouble.
Justin Leonard: excellent driving and GIR stats, again let down by putting. Four missed cuts in a row is testimony to the ongoing flush of fatherhood. Hard to say when reality will kick back in.
Nick O’Hern: Computer says ‘no’ to the Tiger-killer.