WGC-Accenture Match Play quarter finals: Woods exit sets it up for a rampant Rose

That was so inconsiderate of Tiger Woods. There I was licking my lips at the prospect of a semi-final showdown with the rampant Justin Rose when he goes and fluffs that putt to win on the 19th. So instead I have to relish the possibility of an all-English final between Rose and Paul Casey. Wow, I bet the American TV moguls would be overjoyed by that.

Mind you, they can’t be too happy anyway: not only is Woods out, but there’s only one American left, with every possibility he’ll get kicked out in the quarter-finals by the other matchplay “phenom", Stephen Ames.

There’s a scurrilous suggestion going the rounds that Woods didn’t care about this tournament. I suspect a lot of that is empty pockets talking. The big man’s price plummeted to 1.02 before that fluffed putt - another spectacular example of the betting herd jumping off a cliff. Mind you, had Nick O’Hern been placing any bets he’d probably have been among them

Tiger looked plenty up for it over the first two days - seemed like nothing could stop him except, possibly, Geoff Ogilvy.

Then the mysteries of global warming served us a wet, cold and windy Arizona. Seriously, would you think of packing something warm and waterproof to play golf in the desert? And that seems to have made Tiger distinctly uncomfortable down the opening stretch playing into the wind. But if he wasn’t up for it, why launch such a tenacious fightback down the back nine to level it from four behind? Still, it is hard to fathom that schoolboy howler on the 19th, a shot that will be debated for a long time to come.

So out comes a very murky crystal ball. The betting shows how hard it is to call things from here on. Having said how thoughtless it was of Tiger to lose, he has of course done all the people his side of the brackets a big favour. I can’t help thinking the fates have something big in mind for Rose. Here’s how I see things panning out (with Saturday morning market prices in brackets):

O’Hern (12.5) v Stenson (5.3): O’Hern effectively won by default Friday and Stenson looks much the stronger.

Rose (8.4) v Immelman (8): I have read these two guys wrong all the way so you have been warned. The South African will be no pushover, but my (non-winter) stats give Rose the edge and he should have enough confidence after the people he’s sent packing. Go Justin.

Campbell (11) v Ames (11.5): They’re all so tough to call now, this one especially. I give it to Campbell because he’s already seen off two big guns with good matchplay form.

Casey (5.8) v Ogilvy (6.4): In normal sunny conditions the stats scream Ogilvy. But Casey’s been a bit of a dark horse. He’s just as much a proven winner as the Australian and I’m going to plump for him, although I actually think the market has priced this wrong.

And in the semis I go for Rose again over Stenson and, unfortunately for my patriotic hopes but not for the TV moguls, Campbell to see off Casey. Of course, if it were that simple I’d be writing this from a beach in the Bahamas instead of dreary London.

PS: Looking down at the Mayakoba classic in Mexico, which again will have to be brief, it still looks exceptionally wide open, as the top of the leaderboard did its customary bunching up Friday. The afternoon crew, especially Fred Funk and Vaughn Taylor, seemed to make especially heavy weather of things. But at least Funk is still clinging tenaciously to the lead. I wonder if stamina is not going to be his undoing?

One of the interesting players is Bill Haas, sitting just one shot off the lead after two rounds of 66. He’s only had three top 30s so far this season, but he did rub shoulders with the likes of Trevor Immelman and Adam Scott when he came fourth at the Wachovia last year. Just an idle thought in what is still a wide open competition.