WGC-Accenture Match Play round three: Ogilvy and Woods stand out as the birdie kings

A chance Friday to see just how sweet revenge can be. Shaun Micheel goes up against Paul Casey, who basically thrashed him off the park in last year’s HSBC matchplay final, while Tiger Woods gets the opportunity to give Nick O’Hern a good kicking for having the temerity to dump him in the second round of this tournament two years ago.

I’m really warming to this desert showdown. The key, of course is scoring birdies, although the variations can be dramatic. Retief Goosen bagged five Thursday yet still went down to Niclas Fasth. Stewart Cink could manage only two, wiped out by a couple of bogeys, to beat a woeful Padraig Harrington.

Based on the first two rounds, the clear leader of the competition so far is defending champion Geoff Ogilvy, with an incredible 45% birdie rate putting him just ahead of Woods on 43%. The rest barely make 30%. So the way things are shaping up we’re looking at a Woods-Ogilvy final: yummy!

But as we have seen, upsets happen pretty frequently so don’t count your chickens just yet. I know now I should have followed the baying herd on Justin Rose Thursday.

So here’s how I see round three shaping up (with my calculation of their birdie percentages in brackets):

Woods (43%) v O’Hern (14%): The figures say it all. Tiger is on a huge roll and O’Hern, who was basically gifted a win by Rory Sabbatini, will really have to lift his game.

Baddeley (19%) v Stenson (28%): I would give this one to Henrik ,although a lot depends on which Baddeley turns up. The Australian had a fairly bruising encounter with Luke Donald Thursday, which has left the Englishman still bemused as to how he lost.

Rose (31%) v Howell (29%): Ouch, one of the really tough ones. Roses’s stats are clouded by the three holes conceded to him Thursday (they’re not included). I really would like to sit on the fence, but since you’re pointing that gun at me … eeny, meeny, miny, mo … I go for Howell - he’s on a bigger roll.

Poulter (31%) v Immelman (26%): Another tricky one. Immelman’s been my nemesis so far, but I go for Poulter to make it third time lucky for me.

Campbell (30%) v Toms (29%): You can hardly put a cigarette paper between them, but I’ll go for Campbell since he’s the one on a roll after Thursday’s birdie-fest.

Ames (36%) v Cink (15%): Ames has been one of the revelations of the tournament and it’s difficult to argue against those figures. Except they are skewed by Cink’s awful round Thursday, so things are probably less one-sided than they appear.

Micheel 18% v Casey (28%): Sorry Shaun, but I think you’re going home Friday.

Fasth (22%) v Ogilvy (45%): Again only an upset of seismic proportions can halt to onward march of the defending champ.

PS: Because of time constraints I may not be able to write about the Mayakoba competition today, except to note that Fred Funk is seems to be taking full advantage of the course’s reputation for favouring accuracy off the tee - eight birdies and no bogeys. I wouldn’t really know, however, because the PGA guys aren’t giving us any stats. Seems there aren’t enough little old Mexican ladies available to collect them.

The favourite Vaughn Taylor is nicely poised but the rest of my gang need to get their skates on.