Nissan Open preview: Mickelson, Furyk and Scott lead charge of the heavy brigade

When is short short? I ask because everyone says the Riviera course is “short and tight". Is 7,279 yards short? It’s the fourth longest of the 11 played so far and 400 yards longer than anything encountered at Monterey last week. So medium? Ish?

Everyone also says accuracy is the key and bombers should stay at home. My little table of last year’s top finishers begs to differ. The top three players were, on average, fifth for distance and 39th for accuracy. Winner Rory Sabbatini hit the fairways less than 50% of the time.

Okay, it’s an awkward course: doglegs, strategically placed bunkers, and some short holes. My stats were skewed by the wet weather and this year it’s supposed to be fine (Mind you, after last week I wouldn’t trust the weather people to say their own name right).

So things will probably even up between the distance and accuracy merchants. Firm fairways will suit the guys who like to be spot on, but the longer hitters won’t have too much of an argument from the rough, which caught a cold this year and didn’t grow.

So maybe it is going to come down again to top class iron play and putting to conquer firm greens.

We really are spoilt for choice this week, with the Nissan being described as a mini-major because of its stellar lineup (I’m sure one big guy’s missing: would that I could figure out who). So here’s a quick list of my likes and dislikes:

Likes:

Phil Mickelson: after last week who’s to say ‘no’? He may do more ‘experimenting’ but if his stats are anything like last week’s he’ll be hot. Only downer - it’s a long time since he’s played here (2001 missed cut).
Adam Scott: second last year, winner of the two-rounder the year before, second at the Mercedes this year. Only the fact that he returns from a five-week break is a worry.
Jim Furyk: A strong fancy, 12th last year and would have run Mickelson close last week had he not had that washout Saturday. His season so far suggests a win in the offing and his accuracy and GIR stats are excellent. Although his putting stats are poor, they were far better last week, apart from Saturday.
Charles Howell III: Playoff loser [corrected] in 2003, two seconds already this season, he’s been a bit AC/DC so far, but this is his week to be DC again.
John Rollins: another strong fancy. Two seconds sandwich a missed cut this season. He was fifth here last year and his stats support his case. Could this be the one?
Robert Allenby: Three top tens out of three so far this year for a previous winner here.
Luke Donald: Virtually renounced his English heritage last week by saying he no longer does rain, which would explain his missed cut. He does sun though and he was 12th last year.

Place possibilities? : Bart Bryant (23rd last year and 7th and 4th in his last two outings); Bo van Pelt (11th last year, 11th last week. Coincidence?); Heath Slocum (Am I mad? He’s missed the cut in his last four Nissan outings. But look at his 20-4-6 this season and wonder).

Dont like

Vijay Singh: Poor course form.
Trevor Immelman: 7th last year but his putter seems to have gone missing.
Carl Petterson: What has gone wrong? 7th here last year but has missed his last three cuts.
Stewart Cink: no on course or season form.
Sabbatini: Almost threw it away last year and has thrown away a lot more since.
Sergio Garcia: First US event this year and I need to see the state of his putting first.
Charles Warren: Since I backed him he’s been going backwards.
Mike Weir: Multiple winner but out of sorts.

Dont know:

Retief Goosen: Season opener on a course he is not particularly familiar with, but a fifth and a win in the Gulf plus course conditions here make him a possibility.
Ernie Els: Since winning here in 1999 his course form has been rank and this is his first US outing this year. But since the back end of last year Ernie’s fortunes have definitely been on the upswing and the South African Open got him back to winning ways.
David Toms: Two top 10s out of three this year, but two missed cuts out of two in the Nissan since 2000.