AT&T Pebble Beach round three: Look for Love if Mickelson has a Winged Foot moment

There is a simple set of figures to illustate the cruel vagaries of the AT&T. Of those that missed the cut 23 by my count played Pebble Beach at it’s easiest on the Friday. Those blown to pieces on Thursday fared far worse, with 35 culled. But the ones I really feel sorry for played on soaking Saturday, when 46 became mere statistics.

Pebble Beach can rarely have been such a monster, playing on average more than a stroke worse on Saturday than Thursday, while the other courses more or less behaved themselves (Third round averages (06 in brackets) - Poppy Hills 72 ((73.4); Spyglass Hill 73 (73.1); Pebble Beach 76.3 (72.8); overall 73.8 (73.1)).

So you can see why Jim Furyk had such a mare. His putting dissolved on the soaking greens and that 76 looks to have robbed him of a tilt at glory Sunday, although if the weather improves you can’t entirely rule it out. Davis Love III came from seven shots behind to steal it from third round leaders Olin Browne and Phil Mickelson in 2001. Okay, a third round leader has taken the spoils for the last four years.

It would be so easy to join the rush to declare Mickelson our locked-on winner. His closest rivals don’t look up to much. Kevin Sutherland has never sparkled at Pebble Beach on Sunday and John Mallinger, for all his good stats, has yet to feel the pressure of Wobbly Sunday. Oh, and the best he could muster last year was a tie for 4th in something called the National Mining Association Pete Dye Classic. Good grief!

Lefty is clearly on a big role with his shiny new driver - 12th for accuracy at 78%? Phew! And whistle some more at his other stats in these trying circumstances.

But the computer says ‘hold on a minute’. This is Phil ‘Winged Foot’ Mickelson we’re talking and in the AT&T he also has a horrible habit of messing up. Since 2000 his stroke average for Pebble Beach in the pro-am stage is 70, but for round four it’s a staggering 74.4 (a bit skewed by his 80 in 2003).

So in my book he’s not home and hosed yet.

It will be interesting to follow Corey Pavin: in his last three Sundays at Pebble Beach he hasn’t got below 71, but then Saturday’s 67 was his first below 70 in the last seven years.

But my speculative attention goes to Love. His stats aren’t head-turning, but he is a tournament winner and a bit of an exception in one interesting regard - he alone has generally done better at Pebble Beach on Sunday than in the pro-am. He was a flop last year to be sure, but at a price of 40 on the exchanges I think it’s worth a punt. I may well finance the bet anyway by laying Mallinger and Sutherland.

PS: See what the high life does to you? Luke Donald on why he has played so poorly: “They say you must be used to [the rain]. Not really. I’m getting used to playing in Florida and following the sun on the PGA Tour.”