FBR Open preview: It's time for Phil Mickelson to up his game

If Phil Mickelson is going to end up as anything more than an afterthought this season, he really needs to get cracking. According to the PGA Tour website 2007 is the worst start of his pro career. The FBR Open, which he has won twice, provides a perfect opportunity to put this right. The course suits him and he loves its big, noisy crowds. I just wonder if he’s stopped fiddling with his new drivers enough to concentrate on winning.

I suspect his mind is more fixated on his upcoming Masters defence than anything in between. But if he does get in the groove at Scottsdale he’ll be hard to beat and he suggests he has now chosen a driver that’s giving him a few more yards.

Opinion is split on the extent to which Scottsdale is a bombers’ paradise. J B Holmes certainly whacked some cruise missiles last year as he streaked to a seven-shot victory. But his putting was just as important and Scott Verplank, way back in 57th place for distance, still managed second place. Slightly complicating matters is the fact that the rough isn’t so rough this year and pre-tournament rain is said to have softened up the fairways, both aiding the long hitters.

Still, collating the stats of last year’s top players puts putting way ahead of the rest as the key ingredient. Then it’s a toss-up between distance off the tee and greens in regulation. Based on that, Mickelson is a fairly hot property, despite his poor showing. Up there with him are two others widely tipped for success this week: Charles Howell III and Mark Calcavecchia. Howell has been the form man of this early season with two seconds already and was 18th for putting at last week’s difficult Buick course. Calcavecchia is a three-time winner here, albeit the last was six years ago, and is T8 and T4 in his last two events.

With a lot of form still up in the air, though, there’s a number of other players you couldn’t rule out. On my ratings Justin Rose is in with a shout with his sizzling putting form while Steve Lowery’s stats are much in line with those of his second place last year, It might also be worth putting some place money on last week’s rookie find Andrew Buckle - eighth for putting at the Buick and ranking 26th on my distance chart for this event.

Top of my chart, though, is Charles Warren, who missed the cut last year but came eighth in 2005. In this lineup he ranks sixth for putting, seventh for distance and seventh for GIR, a hard combination to ignore. And don ‘t rule out a Holmes repeat - he now has two missed cuts but was fourth in the Mercedes and this course plainly suits his eye.

Other hot tips I am dubious of are:

David Toms: two top 20s this year and course form, but the form book says ‘no’;

Chris DiMarco: a couple of useful results in the Middle East and a past winner, but I want to see some US form before I go for him;

Vijay Singh: a winner here but seems to have gone into his shell since Hawaii;

Camilo Villegas: second last year and paradoxically did well on the difficult course last week then disintegrated on the pitch and putt. Just loosening up maybe?

Trevor Immelman: got to win again soon they say, but his putting stats at the moment are dire;

Lucas Glover: the form book has him as a contender, but he seems to be going backwards at the moment;

Bubba Watson: a bomber whose putting may be his downfall;

Scott Verplank: could be close but again I fear no cigar.