Mercedes Benz Championship preview: Sabbatini plots to spoil Appleby's party

Happy new year everyone, although the ‘new’ part could do with some scrutiny by trading standards officers. Same old Tiger Woods missing in action - sorry but getting your wife pregnant is not an excuse - and same young Michelle Wie trying to get too much action. Mind you, it wouldn’t surprise me to see her actually make the cut next week simply to spite Stuart Appleby. And, of course, same old Stuart Appleby plotting to refill his bank account on the wide open fairways of the Kapalua resort’s Plantation course.

So, will he do it? There’s every reason to suppose he will, and every reason to suppose he won’t. You always take your gambling life in your hands with season openers since the form book, a tricky guide at the best of times, is at its most wayward. Which golfers ate too much Christmas pudding? How many are here simple to pick up the money and get match fit?

What is new about this golf season of course is the FedEx Cup format with a $10m pot of gold at the end for Tiger … sorry the winner. The Mercedes Benz (they’ve added the Benz in case you didn’t realise the German car maker was involved) is the first chance to get points on the board, in theory adding to the impetus for players to do well. Can’t say from the interviews I’ve seen this is playing on too many minds.

So Appleby? It would be a big surprise if he wasn’t at least in the mix on Sunday, on which basis you might think a price of just over 10 for a three-time winner here is not bad. One of the reasons he excels is, by his own admission, that he loves playing the windy conditions. The forecasts suggest he won’t be disappointed. And his job has again been made that much easier by the absence of Tiger and (ish) Phil Mickelson.

He still faces strong opposition though. Jim Furyk comes in with the best stats from last season in the two key disciplines that won this event last year - greens in regulation and putting. Like a number of returnees to Kapalua, Furyk has very solid form here, including a win six years back and third in last year’s horrible conditions. The only downer is that he is at a typically unfancy favourite’s price.

Vijay Singh has not been out of the top 5 in his last five shots at this and was unlucky to lose the playoff to Appleby last year after a stunning final round 66 (on a par 73). But he is forever the bridesmaid, losing three times to Appleby, he doesn’t get any younger, and there is no sign that his putting has improved enough to stop him angrily wrapping putters around anything handy.

Adam Scott might be tempted to start this season as he finished the last and has been a top tenner in his two previous visits here. David Toms has decent form here too and even K J Choi notched a tie for second four years ago.

But a lot of people are looking to Rory Sabbatini to break Appleby’s stranglehold. Rory came second here six years ago although he was way down the pack in his one subsequent reappearance. But there’s no doubt he is an early season dynamo, winning the west coast swing last year. And he has been practising solidly on this course for the last two weeks. Only one problem - he still not be good enough to pip a rampant Appleby. Could be worth finding out though at a price of 46.

I hesitate to put too much emphasis on stats that mostly reflect end-of season achievements. But let’s just add that, by the same criteria that has Furyk as a hot contender, I shall study with interest the fortunes of Troy Matteson, who put in such a strong finish last year, Joe Durant despite his Christmas tragedy, and Trevor Immelman, mugged at the last by Ernie Els in the South African Open last month.

Let battle commence.