Tour Championship preview: Where's Tiger Woods when you need to pick an easy winner?

The Tour Championship this year has the feel of a great banquet with empty chairs at the top table, notably the guest of honour’s. It sends the message that this is really just a little end of term money-spinning celebration for the season’s stars. It leaves a bit of a question mark over the death or glory commitment of some of our intrepid heroes this weekend. Without Tiger Woods around to concentrate minds, it also seriously muddies the waters as to likely winners.

The stats that last year’s top six brought home illustrate how you need a pretty all-round game, with an obvious edge to putting and iron-play. Much has been made of Bart Bryant leading the accuracy ratings. Since his final margin of victory was six strokes from Tiger Woods, who was first in the distance ratings, the message seems loud and clear.

This year, however, I hear tell the rough is hardly worth the fuss and the course is playing soft and long. If so the advantage may shift to the distance merchants. No matter: based on last year’s profile, I have culled my stats to find players with the lowest combined ranking for putting and GIR who also rank tenth or better for either distance or accuracy off the tee. The four heading that list are:

Joe Durant: You wouldn’t think it from the PGA’s annual stats but his recent performances have him second for both putting and GIR and, like Bryant last year, top of the class for hitting fairways. What a stellar month October was, with one victory, a second, fourth and sixth. I’m betting he really would like to put one over here. I have seen some moans about his price of 26, but they could look a bit overstated come Sunday.

Jim Furyk: currently just about matches Durant on and around the green but just pips him for accuracy and has better distance stats. He was a bit disappointing in his only outing since returning from England, and his form here is a bit modest, but is clearly the class act of the field.

Arron Oberholser: another with a mean putter but a good all round game too A winner at the start of the season, he’s had some decent if not particularly spectacular results since. Even so, a price of more than 40 maybe does him a bit of an injustice. But if we are looking at interesting “outsiders", I’d say Brett Wetterich might be more alluring after last week’s second place.

Davis Love III: currently the number one putt-sinker in the field and the number one for distance off the tee too. Winner of the Chrysler Classic last month and fifth two weeks later, he is clearly back to something like his old form.

If any of these guys bring their game to the East Lake course they’ll be tough to beat.

Others to mention:

Adam Scott: I had such high hopes for him last week, but he sadly missed the cut. Yet I can’t think he traipsed all the way across the Atlantic just to pick up the pocket money (albeit in six figures!) of a lower order place here, so while his stats are not too inspiring I have him in the mix come Sunday.

Ernie Els: let himself go last Sunday and almost didn’t make it here. But the point is he did, with some sparkling shots at the end, a sign of how much he wanted to make this event. No one can doubt he is desperate for a win. The problem might be that he is too desperate.

Vijay Singh: was never in it last week and I don’t think he’ll be in it this unless there is a dramatic improvement in his putting.

Stewart Cink: This is local turf and he says he loves the course, but you wouldn’t think so from his record in this competition. Unlucky not to be a winner this season, but his recent form leaves me neutral.

You can keep the rest. Famous last words I know, but for my final lays of the season (Sunday trading excepted), I am going to plump for Singh, Luke Donald and Retief Goosen. On my stats at least, they are not going to make it.

PS: Geoff Ogilvy questions the length of the PGA season (which we all know is changing next year) and asks “Would football be the biggest thing … . if you had been watching it every Saturday for the last six months?” I know he’s talking about American sporting seasons, but in REAL football (that’s the football that really is a world sport) there’s not much difference in the length of seasons from golf! Can’t say I’ve noticed a dramatic turnoff from English soccer after eight months or so. Mind you, I have sympathy for his sentiments because I’m feeling a bit fatigued by the long PGA season myself. Not a break in 44 weeks! Phew!