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Chrysler Classic of Greensboro preview: Choi has his work cut out to break Greensboro jinx

Thursday October 5, 2006 | 07:45:54 552 words, 1603 views  

I feel very fortunate this Thursday morning, having returned barely alive from carousing in the frozen north of Britain (actually it was quite balmy) with some Scots pals. I am also fortunate because at least the huge headache I have copped as a result will go away sometime soon. For many of the competitors in this week’s Chrysler Classic of Greensboro at the Forest Oaks country club, their financial headache is likely to continue for a while yet.

Difficult to make my aching mind up whether to go for the few heavyweights or to follow the advice of the PGA Tour’s fantasy insider and “go with the desperate ones” who have been dominating the second-string events recently. An added complication is that some of those heavyweights are not-so-freshly returned from the WGC tournament in my neck of the woods.


Looking at last year’s top ten suggests an all-round game will get you a long way, but the keys are a first class short game with a hot putter at the end of it . Also, if anything, accuracy off the tee is more of an asset than distance.

That produces the following list of likely lads:

Joe Durant: finally outgunned in last week’s playoff but continues to top my all-round stats. Question is how last week’s disappointment might affect him;

Eric Axley: his figures are skewed by winning the Texas Open. He strikes me as a most unlikely two-time winner in a season;

Shigeki Maruyama: has shown tentative signs of turning round his indifferent season;

Brett Quigley: ninth in the WGC last week and two top 10s before that. His hot short game marks him out;

Justin Rose: the most infuriating English player on the planet is a definite lay for me but maybe later in the tournament as he has a habit of reaching for the sky early on;

Steve Stricker: top ten in his last four outings and looking hot to trot;

Joe Ogilvie: another regular nearly man who went from third in the Reno-Tahoe Open to missing the cut a month later in the Texas Open;

Kenny Perry: has struggled a bit after his surgery and, having rested for the best part of a month, may be a bit rusty;

Lucas Glover: 13th in the WGC last week after a 12th and 4th in his previous two competitions. Well worth considering.

As for the favourite and defending champion, I noted last week that K J Choi currently has pretty good stats. But he let me down in the WGC last week. Putting and accuracy won it for him last time and he will have to work hard on the latter this year if he is going to break the Greensboro jinx on retaining the title.

Other who look doubtful include Mike Weir, with modest stats and no course form, Davis Love III, who came a handy 4th in the WGC last week but has poor course form, Carl Pettersson, putting his Ryder Cup blues behind him but still off his best, and Tim Clark, whose 6th here last year wasn’t as impressive at it looks.

I think I’ll actually lay Weir and Ogilvie and add a couple of other reasonably-priced players low in my stats: Jonathan Byrd and Brad Faxon.

Now excuse me while I go and find some aspirin.

Permalink 3 comments

Comments, Pingbacks:

Comment from: Oliver Sudden [Visitor]
I was reading Dick Francis's new book Under Orders last night and he explained the concept of lay a horse ( or bet a horse to lose ). The reason I mention this is because I didn't understand this and asked you about it previously.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-10-05 @ 18:44
Comment from: Anthony Urquhart (PGA Punter) [Visitor] · http://www.pgapunter.com
Okay, sorry Oliver I thought I had done that but obviously I wasn't clear enough. A lay is essentially the other side to a back - as you say it is actually saying that what you are betting on will lose. It's what bookies do all the time, only they generally lay the book, ie every "runner" in the event. So when you place a bet with a bookie, they are simply laying your bet.

With the advent of person-to-person betting exchanges, which effectively means Betfair these days, you can be your own bookie (although you will struggle because of much tighter margins and the commission that is charged). Or you can back and lay the same runner, for instance to "lock in" a quick profit.

So, for example (and ignoring commision), say I had backed favourite K J Choi before the Chrysler Classic started for $10 (pounds, euros, whatever) at a price of 22 (effectively 21 when you take the stake away). I could now lay him at the overnight price of 15 (effective 14) for the princely sum of $14.67.

If it wins that would be $210 (21x$10) minus $205.38 (14x$14.67)
for a PROFIT of $4.62

If it loses it would be the amount I layed $14.67 minus the stake I lost $10
for a PROFIT of $4.67

So you win either way!

Is that any clearer?
PermalinkPermalink 2006-10-06 @ 04:30
Comment from: Anthony Urquhart [Visitor] · http://www.pgapunter.com
Oliver, the following link offers an excellent online tutorial about exchange trading:

http://www.betangel.com/tutorials/01-Introduction_to_trading/01-Introduction_to_trading.html

PermalinkPermalink 2006-10-09 @ 18:20

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Anthony Urquhart's guide to betting on the PGA Tour

The PGA Punter, aka Anthony Urquhart, writes about pro golf from a gamblers point of view. Without claiming to have a crystal ball, the Punter offers WorldGolf.com readers views on the players and wagering possibilities that present themselves each week on tour.