WGC_American Express Championship preview: Despite the last fortnight, go against Tiger at your peril

Back to normal service with Tiger Woods this week? At least he returns to what he does best and the stats he brings with him are frightening - 9 wins from 14 WGC strokeplay events and he’s never finished worse than ninth. He’s a four-time winner of this event alone, one of them in Ireland. And of course, he’s seeking to equal his 1999-2000 record of six strokeplay wins on the trot.

While the last two weeks suggest a reverse side, I would always discount matchplay performance and you can look at his Ryder Cup glass as both half empty and half full.

I’m confused about The Grove course, though. Does it have light rough as I have read or do we believe the quotes attributed to the course director that the rough is a horror and the tight fairways will reward the accurate (but they’ll need to be long hitters as well)? One thing seems agreed - the greens are flat and true with Tiger for one likening them to the ones in Ireland where he won this event. Ominous?

The wind might play its part if it’s anything like Wednesday’s gusty conditions, but the weathermen can’t make up their minds on that either.

I’m going to back Tiger: even if he doesn’t win, the case for seeing him in contention at a lower price is strong.

And the rest of a stellar cast? Among those I like are:

Ernie Els: Lost out in a playoff to Adam Scott in Singapore earlier this month, again suggesting he is putting his surgery problems firmly behind him. This course is not far from his Wentworth base so he should feel right at home. Accuracy is the biggest worry.

Lee Westwood: A revelation last week, but may be one of those Europeans expected to suffer a Ryder Cup hangover, plus he picked up a chest infection in Ireland. On the other hand, he is said to know this course like the back of his hand.

Paul Casey: Perhaps wishful thinking, but I would just love to see him in contention with Tiger & Co come Sunday. Unfortunately he’s talking as if he needs a rest after the excitement of the last two weeks - always a dodgy sign.

Vijay Singh: Bit of a wild choice but he’s had a good rest and has an excellent record in this event.

Stewart Cink: His performance on the Sunday was one of rare American grit and his stats are excellent.

Scott Verplank: performed well when he was allowed to last week, second for accuracy in our stats and a fine putting record too.

Ryder Cuppers I don’t particularly fancy are Jim Furyk and Chris DiMarco (very disappointing last week), Sergio Garcia (back on his own where a hot putter is needed), David Howell (still plagued by injury despite last week), Padraig Harrington (still out of form). and Colin Montgomerie (just because I say so).

But in the end I will stick to just two lays: Retief Goosen and Ian Poulter. I’d like to add Adam Scott despite his Singapore win, but he could well go lower so I’ll wait.

Two other names I will mention are:

K J Choi: For someone out at 180 he ticks an awful lot of my stats boxes - first for putting, 14th for accuracy, 15th for distance and 4th overall.

Thomas Bjorn: maybe he’s got something positive to say now the dust has settled on his Ryder Cup outburst. Actually that has prompted one of this week’s jokes. Apparently among the specific exclusions on the tickets for this event are the usual cameras and mobiles plus “explosive devices", prompting one forumite to ask: “Does that include Thomas Bjorn?”