Valero Texas Open Round Three: Axley has history on his side, but the price isn't right

Difficult to know what to make of Eric Axley after yet another sizzling round of 63 on Saturday put him four shots clear of the pack. His stats are hot - first for greens in regulation, fourth for putting, sixth for accuracy off the tee. Look at his previous record and wonder where on earth all that came from.

Four over Sunday morning is not necessarily such a large margin - we’ve seen far more experienced players throw away bigger leads on “wobbly Sunday". Ted Purdy for one thinks there’s still 20 players in with a chance. So just how much of a wobbler is our Eric?

There’s very little to draw on from his previous performances because this is rare territory for Axley, either here or in the Nationwide whence he came. All you can say is it’s as likely to be a mare as magical.

He’s never had to protect a PGA Tour lead before and that can do terrible things to the mind. He doesn’t have the A-Team on his tail, but there are at least a few capable of a decent charge. Looking at their performances so far, Frank Lickliter, Chris Riley and good old Justin Rose stand out as having performed well without getting their due reward. Surely one of them is capable of going low and posing a threat if Axley goes on the defensive?

The record of this tournament favours Sunday morning leaders winning. In the last six years only Robert Gamez last year bucked the trend, but that was to overcome just a one-shot deficit.

Even so, at a fair bit under evens (1.7) Axley’s price doesn’t tempt me. Think I’ll see if I can’t take it on in-play.