Valero Texas Open preview: It's a crap shoot, but someone's got to win it

In a land far, far away, a band of men are fighting for their golfing lives. Who said Ireland? I’m not talking about the Ryder Cup. Believe it or not there’s quite a big golf match going on in San Antonio that could decide one or two careers before the weekend is over.

I know, there’s only one golfing story and it’s not happening in the Lone Star state. Even AP seems to have sent all its people over to the Emerald Isle while the PGA Tour site has been running the same story all week - that even in Texas they’ll be watching the Ryder Cup!. About the only chance of reading anything on the Valero Texas Open is to subscribe to the lone newspaper that seems to be covering it, the San Antonio Express, and they’re not exactly gushing with stories.

It’s not much better in the markets where, against the untold millions swilling around the Ryder Cup, the Betfair winner market for the Valero had only just managed to crawl over £100,000 ($189,000) by Thursday. Still, if a PGA event is going to take place, I’m going to try to make money out of it even if it is, as one analysis put it, a crap shoot.

Is it a coincidence that the top four from last year all tee off in the first half-hour segment Thursday? Looking at their stats last year, putting sings out as the killer. Their average ranking in that department was 4th, way ahead of the other main skills (greens in regulation 22nd, driving accuracy 26th and distance 39th). However Robert Gamez swept to victory on the back of a solid all-round performance, even in distance which is far from one of his strengths.

Of those four only Woody Austin makes the top 50 on current overall form and also comes out best in the putting stats.

But it’s tight at the top of the betting. Bart Bryant is favourite coming off his second place in the Canadian Open, but those were peculiar conditions and he has been unspectacular otherwise this season.

If Shaun Micheel can put last week’s matchplay disappointment behind him he has excellent form for this one: 26th for distance, 14th for putting and second for greens in regulation. Only accuracy lets him down slightly and Joe Ogilvie sports slightly better all-round stats. as does Bob Estes.

There’s obvious interest in Charles Howell III after he knocked on the door last week, but he’ll have to concentrate very hard on his putting.

Interesting to see at least one of the fixed price bookies making Justin Rose joint favourite - but he’s been hammering on the door so often now I feel like double-bolting it.

Then of course there’s the lean and hungry mob desperate to qualify for next year: one of last year’s top four, Olin Browne needs to look to his laurels to avoid slipping down, as does Jeff Overton, ninth in last week’s 84 Lumber. Bob May, who gets a few mentions on the web, is just under the line while Gamez himself badly needs the money, which might concentrate his mind.

As for any decent-priced lays, not an easy one. I am going to take on the favourite - Bryant doesn’t stand out of the crowd enough for me.

Yes, you scream, but what about the Ryder Cup?

Damn, I knew there was something I’d forgotten. But that’s easy - it’ll be won by the team with all those stars in its flag (mmmm, back to the drawing board on that I think).