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84 Lumber Classic Round One: Storming start by rookie Thompson as Ryder Cup players leave their game at home

Friday September 15, 2006 | 04:20:55 335 words, 1453 views  

Look through rookie Nicholas Thompson’s PGA Tour record this season and you’ll see missed cut after missed cut after finishes in the 70s and 80s. It’s been getting better - he hasn’t missed a cut since early August and he’s been finishing as low as the 40s. And there’s that one T6 at the BC Open courtesy of a final round 64, the only clue to yesterday’s storming start by the American.

His scorecard is busy - only five pars - and the stats tell a surprising story of the triumph of accuracy over distance - on a day when the course was playing longer.

There are a few perspicacious souls who foresaw Thompson’s desperate desire to avoid a return to Q school - he’s about $325.000 short of the line - and lumped on him at more than 700. They’ll have huge smiles on their faces now he has come down to 25.

This might be the time for them to take at least some profit. something that might apply to backers of the other relative unknowns at the top.

Thursday was a dream day for going low after more than an inch and a half of rain turned the greens into pussy cats. It has me scratching my head over the performance of some of the bigger hitters like Brett Wetterich and Kevin Sutherland.

The rain is now expected to stay away and the wind to dry up the course, making things a whole lot trickier. I assume it is this that makes Vijay Singh still the favourite at a price almost identical to the start, even though he’s seven shots off the pace. That strikes me as odd given that two of the guys up above are Rory Sabbatini and Sean O’Hair, with even David Toms one stroke ahead of him.

Chris DiMarco is the biggest disappointment. You might expect him to fight to make the cut, but thoughts of next week’s battle seem to be playing tricks with these guys.

Oh, and I see Michelle Wie’s 5 over. Nothing new there then.

Permalink 9 comments

Comments, Pingbacks:

Comment from: Shanks [Visitor]
Is it too late to make Shaun Micheel a Captain's Pick????
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 09:09
Comment from: Oliver Sudden [Visitor]
Will Wie finish the round ? 7 over thru 7 today, is a WD imminent ? What are the odds ?
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 11:07
Comment from: Oliver Sudden [Visitor]
Correction, 6 over thru 7.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 11:09
Comment from: John D [Visitor]
She better be getting the bag of fake puke ready...she's gonna need it.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 11:38
Comment from: Anthony Urquhart (PGA Punter) [Visitor] · http://pgapunter.com
Now now guys, be gentle.
Anyone want to run a sweepstake on what today's excuse is going to be?
Shanks - you wouldn't let me have O'Hair, I'm not letting you have Micheel. Nice round from Stricker today though.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 14:07
Comment from: Oliver Sudden [Visitor]
I've been in a situation like the backers of Thompson this week, like when I had Rich Beem at Doral at 300-1 this year, but how do you take profits ?
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 15:04
Comment from: Anthony Urquhart (PGA Punter) [Visitor] · http://www.pgapunter.com
On the exchanges Oliver you can lay the player at any time during the tournament to lock in a profit, a two-way one if you want.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 15:38
Comment from: Oliver Sudden [Visitor]
For example, I had $15 each way ( to win at 300-1 and top 5 at 75-1 ) on Beem. After Friday I believe he was leading. But sportingbet.com would only let me make further wagers of this type. So what could I do ? Thanks for any info.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 15:52
Comment from: Anthony Urquhart (PGA Punter) [Visitor] · http://www.pgapunter.com
Oliver you create an account with ione of the betting exchanges. They're not exactly thick on the ground for one reason or another, mainly the muscular tendencies of the main one, Betfair. It's chief rival is a site called Betdaq. There are one or two others but they are small and don't offer the same level of liquidity.

The point about these sites is that you are not placing bets with a betting firm but with other customers. Supposedly they are ordinary punters like you but there are clearly moneybags involved who have some kind of tie-in with the sites. The bookies, despite slagging the sites off, also use them at least to hedge their liabilities.

These sites allow you to bet either way throughout an event, so instead of seeking to place a bet you can take the other side and lay the bet for a specified sum. So say you had backed Nicholas Thompson at the start for $2@760. At the end of the first round you could have laid him for something like 28. By my calculatioin if you laid him for $54 at that price you would colect $60 if he wins and $52 if he loses, ignoring commission. (now I'm praying I've got my maths right!)

Thing is you can do this back and forth to your heart's content, which can make Sunday quite fun as you follow the ebb and flow of a match and bet backwards and forwardss accordingly.

I hope that helps a bit.
PermalinkPermalink 2006-09-15 @ 19:06

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Anthony Urquhart's guide to betting on the PGA Tour

The PGA Punter, aka Anthony Urquhart, writes about pro golf from a gamblers point of view. Without claiming to have a crystal ball, the Punter offers WorldGolf.com readers views on the players and wagering possibilities that present themselves each week on tour.