PGA Championship Round Three: Cool hand Luke can't beat the Tiger

The PGA Championship layers are having a laugh aren’t they? Luke Donald at less than 5 to win against a man who’s 11 from 11 for winning majors leading into the final round, that man of course being Tiger Woods? I’d rather put a fiver on my socks not being smelly.

Luke’s got it all to do today: not just up against that amazing record of Tiger’s, but against the fact that Tiger has already shot a better round than him at Medinah this weekend and, of course, he will be swept up in all the hoopla of the Tiger circus that is invariably worth a shot or two to the great man.

Given the way the course is playing, and more to the point the way Tiger had gradually ratcheted up his performance, there surely can only be one result today. So even a heavily odds-on price like Tiger’s looks a good thing as long as you don’t mind throwing lots of dosh at small returns.

From a pure gambling perspective its a pity Donald’s price isn’t more competitive because that’s the real gamble. Everything is going a little TOO smoothly for my liking, and everyone is a bit TOO smug about this being Tiger’s day. There’s the slight whiff of upset in the air.

Luke does have things going for him: he’s a “homeboy hero” here and is certainly the kind of cool customer you need going round with Tiger. And he already seems to have raised his game a notch or two in his self-proclaimed quest for greatness. Go on layers - give me 7-1!

Since I’m not going to get that, I will settle for taking advantage of any in-play cockups. It may also be worth taking on the other challengers. It has to be between the top two surely - has been for the last 10 years?

Somewhat perversely, a good fun bet in the “winner without Woods” market could be to lay Luke Donald. That’s right, I did say lay. His price there of about evens is well worth taking on considering that, if and when Donald realises he is not going to beat Tiger, his head will sag, he will lose momentum and one of the other challengers will nip in to take second place. Remember, you read it here first.