British Open Preview: Is a Tiger Woods-Phil Mickelson battle in the cards?

There’s no pleasing some people. Usually everyone whines because it’s cold, wet and windy in Britain (like they never have storms in America!). This year they’re moaning because it’s in the grips of an immense heatwave. This isn’t British Open (sorry, Open Championship) weather, they wail. We didn’t cross the pond to get sunstroke. Get used to it. Scorching summers are becoming the norm in the UK - it’s already drier than Syria and Sudan for goodness sakes.

But I can understand people’s bemusement. Not only is it really, really hot, and very, very dry. It’s also almost totally becalmed. Hardly a whisper of air rustles the flags of Hoylake. Look at the weather forecast for the next four days and you don’t see it ever getting above the gentlest of breezes.

I suspect the godfathers of the R&A hadn’t bargained for that when they picked this obscure course as far away from Liverpool as a Royal Liverpool club has any right to be. I guess they had visions of cruel, unpredictable winds whipping in off the Irish Sea and playing havoc with the great and good of golf over four relentless days.

So you can ignore a lot of the early crystal ball gazing. That huge debate about high balls and low balls - more puffs of hot air than we’re likely to see over the weekend. Strikes me the only high balls that will be punished will have to hit the jetstream and be declared out of bounds as a hazard to air traffic.

Then we are told the Americans will all fail because they’ve never heard of Hoylake, don’t know the course and “don’t do links golf". All they know about are those plush, manicured, heavily watered carpets that pass for golf courses in the States. Mmmmm. Maybe they don’t do “good ole British links golf” but they do something that strikes me as infinitely more ghastly. It’s called the US Open. I have nightmares about those domed greens ("like the bonnets of Volkswagen Beetles") and I don’t even play professional golf. So let’s not wax too lyrical about the horrors of British links courses please.

The fairways are wide open, the rough is like brushed-up velvet, the greens are as flat and slow as you like, even after the baking they’ve undergone in recent days. and the fairways are so brown and hard the balls will fairly zip along. I saw it suggested the conditions had shortened the course by upwards of 2,000 yards!

There are, as far as I can see, two huge constraints on simply bombing this course. One is the enormous amount of Out of Bounds territory lining the course. The second is some pretty awful, high-walled bunkers at strategic points that, we are assured, will almost automatically cost you a shot. None of your softy pancake American bunkers that golfers prefer to the rough.

So plotting your way successfully round the course will require some thought. But what I think it will also require in abundance is some very sharp putting.

With all that in mind, I think it’s laid out for Tiger Woods. I’ve read all the guff about how he’s still not really match fit, how he missed the cut at Winged Foot, doesn’t do links golf, only does well at his beloved St Andrews, blahdeblahdeblah. Short and sweet: Tiger had an excellent warmup at the Western, is still smarting about Winged Foot, has had plenty of opportunity to get to know the Hoylake course (a mystery to just about everyone let’s not forget), and he looks confident and raring to go. Hey, maybe the “awkward” pairing with Nick Faldo (though I feel the hand of a heavy-breathing media in this one) will spur him even more. And I actually don’t see Hoylake as being too dissimilar to St Andrews except in one regard - less wind. Which is just great for Tiger.

But there is a big but: I think there is more likelihood of a Woods-Mickelson toe-to-toe encounter here than there ever was at Winged Foot.

What was counting against Phil Mickelson here was his generally poor record in British Opens and the fact that he’s not a very good low ball striker. But that doesn’t matter any more. The wind (lack of) has levelled the playing field and brought Lefty sharply into contention. And he should certainly know this course like the back of his hand, the number of times he has been practicing here. You think Phil doesn’t want this one? I think he would be hugely embarrassed to follow the US Open debacle by not putting up a good show here, considering the extent of his preparations. For all that he eventually failed in the US Open, he was a winner until the final hole.

And I think it’s dangerous to count Colin Montgomerie out. Second to Tiger at St Andrews last year, a winner himself at Winged Foot until aliens took control of his brain, he might not be playing in Scotland, but you can bet your backside there’ll been some Tartan terrors cheering on their man (although it is to be hoped they will not include the strange bewigged gentlemen of Dunblane who followed him last year).

But then again, because of the more predictable conditions, and the fact that distance should be no obstacle, this could well turn out to be one of the most open and hotly contested Opens for some time.

So who is NOT going to win? I have struggled but finally picked 10 risky but not too expensive lays. I was going to start with Vijay Singh until I saw how good his putting stats are at the moment. So my first choice is Ernie Els. Sorry mate, but still don’t see you quite in winning form.

Everybody has talked about Jim Furyk’s dismal record in this competition and I agree, that’s a good enough reason to oppose. I don’t go for Adam Scott because, although he is high in my stats, he just isn’t disciplined enough. Sergio Garcia is nowhere near last season’s form and he wasn’t particularly great then, and Darren Clarke is Darren “Choker” Clarke.

I don’t go for Retief Goosen or Stuart Appleby on form grounds and I also don’t share people’s views about this being made for Geoff Ogilvy. Not because I don’t think he can win back to back majors. It’s because I don’t think he can really win majors period. He didn’t win Winged Foot. Two of the best golfers in the world decided to give it to him because he’s such a nice chap.

And before things start getting too expensive I’ll throw Ian Poulter and Kenny Perry into the mix as well. And if one of that lot doesn’t come back to bite me in the bum I’ll heave such a huge sigh of relief they’ll think there’s a gale blowing at Hoylake!

A little list I have made combing putting with all-round performance throws up the following interesting top 10 (in descending order or merit): Padraig Harrington, Luke Donald, Hunter Mahan, David Howell, Robert Allenby, Davis Love, Phillip Price, Stewart Cink and Adam Scott. Harrington and Donald eh, putter-to-putter on Sunday with Woods and Mickelson flailing in their wake. That’d be something!

One interesting one there is Mahan, He let me down, missing the cut on his last couple of outings and I’m not tipping him as a winner. But at odds of 1,000 a couple of squidollars just might bring home some bacon. Brett Quigley and Billy Andrade might be other outsiders worth a sniff. And one other guy worth keeping an eye on is Carl Pettersson. To recycle an old joke, he can’t spell, but he can play a mean round of golf when he’s a mind.

And having stuck he head above the parapet that far, I’ll rest my case. Have a great one folks and may the best man win (since, amazingly, Michelle Wie didn’t quite qualify).