After two rounds at the Open, the stats say go with Tiger Woods

What a mouth-watering prospect Saturday’s golf is. Okay, in the end Woods-Mickelson wasn’t to be, and maybe Hoylake has put Mickelson more firmly into perspective than Winged Foot. But, hey, I’ll take Woods-Els instead any day. As far as I know, Tiger Woods is 6 wins from 6 pole positions at the half way stage in majors (and 10 from 10 leading the third round). Nor has Ernie Els ever passed him from this position. So the stats (along with the market Saturday morning) already give the Claret Jug to Woods. And you’d be hard pushed to find anyone suggesting otherwise.

But I sure as heck haven’t seen a fat lady wandering the baked plains of Hoylake (okay, actually I’ve seen several - the obesity crisis seems to be getting worse - but none of them were singing). You could make a strong argument either way. Forget the stats for a moment or, if you will, look back at last year when the wheels came off Tiger’s machine a little bit on the Saturday. He’s had two great if slightly lucky rounds so far, he’s about due a bad one again. Indeed, the last two rounds at St Andrews were his two worst.

Certainly if I was indulging in some in-running betting Saturday I would be very tempted to put money on Els or lay Tiger, because Ernie has clearly mastered the first three difficult holes better than Tiger and could well catch him up. Let us not forget either that for all Tiger’s round Friday was described by John Hopkins in The (London) Times as “the most remarkable display I have seen in 50 years” it was matched by both Els and Chris DiMarco and, but for that eagle on the 14th, thanks to a wonderful shot he wasn’t actually going for, Els would possibly be in front. And Tiger had the easier morning conditions - I actually saw gusts of up to 11mph in the afternoon!

So Saturday’s confrontation is going to be fascinating. There is, of course one question that is still to be answered - can Els keep it going for four rounds. That actually has been the question since his little bit of surgery. He has put in some pretty good rounds before but the four days of competition have always worn him down. Still, he smells blood again here and that can overcome a whole lot of twinges.

The surprise of the tournament has been the resurgence of some familiar faces - Els, DiMarco for goodness sake with all his recent troubles, Retief Goosen who has been good without being menacing so far this season. I think both DiMarco and Goosen are likely to fall back a bit Saturday and, while there’s no shortage of useful players elsewhere in that chasing pack, I don’t see them catching the leaders.

So Els or Woods, Els or Woods?

The stats still say it for me. Go Tiger.