Tiger Woods the smart pick to win the 2007 British Open

TravelGolf.com’s Chris Baldwin recently said he was awaiting - though I’m sure not anxiously, or even actively - my pick for the British Open that kicks off tomorrow at Carnoustie. He’s made it clear that he thinks a European does not have a chance at the title. And while I do follow European golf to the point that I feel bad whenever I don’t pick a European to win, I’m hard pressed to argue against him.

I wish I could float out all kinds of unusual yet - upon closer inspection - solid and interesting picks to hoist the Claret Jug on Sunday. I wish I could say Colin Montgomerie - hometown favorite that he is - would make up for his embarrassing showing at the U.S. Open; that Sergio Garcia would finally decide to show up and play with the big boys; that the handful of red hot European golfers - Swede Niclas Fasth among them - are the ones to watch; or, switching over to the other side of the pond, a player like Jim Furyk, boring as he is, could win his second major.

But I can’t.

My pick: Tiger Woods.

I can see a Baldwin headline right now: “White shows his imagination with Tiger Woods cop-out.”

It might be a cop-out, but only because picking Woods in any tournament just feels like taking the easy road. This is no limb we’re talking about, no bold statement. And I understand that. But you can slice things a lot of different ways leading into this tournament, and you’ll still come down to Woods.

Woods has won the last two Opens, and he’s going for the history books once again this week. Right there, that gives him an edge. He has lost the last two majors - note, I did not say others won them - and anyone who follows the game knows that Woods doesn’t do losing well.

And the odds are just there: I mean, how many no-name winners is the PGA Tour going to sustain this year?

I think Phil Mickelson, who choked last week at the Scottish Open, will be up there, as will Furyk and Justin Rose, maybe Europe’s best bet - along with Paul Casey - to break through. Yes, I think Monty will contend too. And I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t hoping for some cool storyline involving Nick Faldo, making a Jimmy Conners-esque run at One More Major Title.

But it’ll be Woods. I’ve been crazy before. This time I’m settling on a safe bet, as safe a betting that TravelGolf.com’s Ron Mon will make a moronic - and, of course, scattershot - comment to this post.

Postscript: My vote for craziest British Open pick goes to the esteemed PGA Punter, who says today that he is not ruling out a run at the title from…Loren Roberts. Huh?

Wasn’t the last time Roberts contended in a major back in 1994 at Oakmont? Ok, Mr. Punter, he’s burning up the Champions Tour, but only because he can still walk 18 holes.