Tiger's Done Before He Even Starts

Actually, all the oddsmakers had Woods as the prohibitive favorite at much less than 2 to 1,some even at less than even money.

One internet gambling site, Pinnacle Sports, had Tiger at 4 to 1 to win the Masters this morning despite being SEVEN shots behind after two rounds. The other golfers behind by seven strokes were listed at odds of 30 to 75 to one.

Woods may yet win the 2008 Masters, but that would be a monumental task even for him. And a bettor should get odds better than 4 to 1 on a miracle comeback such as that. What is that expression about a sucker being born every minute?

Alex USMC 1969-73

Alex, I don't want TW to win, but I wouldn't bet against it. It's a 7 shot deficit but if the leaders drop a couple of shots and he makes a couple, then it's his for the taking on Sunday. I'm not talking about making any money on the bet, just that I don't think it would be a "miracle comeback".

Not so monumental, as Wendy points out. He's already done his part by going -4. Remember when Gil Morgan got to -12 at Pebble in 1992, then woofed it all back? I'll be shocked if anyone gets to double figures under par and stays there.

Wendy and Ron Mon,

You folks are the exact reason why bookmakers can set such ridiculously low odds on Tiger and still have punters wager on an unlikely outcome. I guess hope springs eternal. But despite the lyrics of that old song, wishing won't make it so.

Incidentally, have the results of the third round changed your minds even slightly? Would you now bet against Tiger winning the 2008 Masters? Do you now agree that making up a six shot deficit in the final round would indeed be a miracle comeback?

Alex USMC 1969-73

Alex, I wish Immelman et al all the best, but the point was that if the current leaders all go backwards, and TW makes a couple of birdies to win, I don't see that he has actually performed a miracle. If he shoots -7 to win it outright, then he has.
However, making up a 6 shot deficit qualifies as a slightly lesser miracle than yesterday's 7 shot deficit either way.

Wendy,

And as I previously stated, it's that sort of thinking that allows the oddsmakers to post such meager odds on Tiger. I'm not saying that it would be impossible for Woods to sweep grandly from behind and to win another green jacket. If anyone has the game and the grit to do it, that would be the Tiger. But, as you say, all it would take is for the leaders all to back up, and for Tiger to score some birdies. A big order, but not insurmountable.

The point is, Wendy, that the oddsmakers take advantage of the almost obscene Tiger worship. With just 18 holes to play, Pinnacle has the odds posted on Tiger to win the Masters at 4.2 to 1. Only Trevor, who incidentally is six strokes ahead of Woods, has lower odds at 1.5 to 1.

Another UK betting site, Skybet, actually has the odds on Tiger to win at 7 to 2, while those on Trevor are 11 to 10. Casey, Flesch, and Snedeker are all quoted much higher than Woods.

Do the oddsmakers really think that those paltry odds on Tiger are anywhere near correct? Of course not! But hey, if they can get anyone gullible enough to make a wager like that, they will be much obliged.

I myself would consider betting on Tiger to make a comeback of the ages to win today IF the odds were something like 20 to 1. Only a very naive person, one with little mathematical ability but with an abundance of Tiger worship would wager that Woods would win today at 7 to 2 or 4.2 to 1.

Alex U
1969-73

Alex,

Think we're talking at cross-purposes - what's new? I'm only quibbling over what constitutes a "miracle comeback". Not bothered if the bookies take every penny off the Tiger worshippers as I am not one of them.

Ungracious dig on your part considering I did stand up and be counted when I got carried away on your Grand Slam odds?

Enjoy the final round anyway.

Wendy,

Let's see. You don't believe that Tiger coming from six shots behind would qualify as a "miracle comeback" and Ron Mon doesn't view it as monumental. I guess then that if Woods actually does pull off what I believe to be a once-in-a-lifetime rally to win the 2008 Masters, you folks will greet it with a ho-hum, just another day at the office.

I'll tell you what. If Tiger pulls off such a stupendous victory, in my opinion it would rank as one of the greatest feats in golfing history, and certainly deserving of more odds than 7 to 2 or 4.2 to 1.

Just for my own edification, what, in your opinion, would make the grade as a "miracle comeback?"

Alex,

I've already stated that if the leaders all go backwards, and TW wins in those circumstances, it's not a "miracle comeback" or a "monumental effort" on his behalf to me. If he overtakes the leaders by his own brilliant play then it is a "miracle comeback", and I would have no qualms with acknowledging it as such. How much more edification do you need?

Wendy,

Spoken like a true female. A lot of "if's" and "maybe's".

Even if Trevor shoots a 74 today, which would be his poorest round of the tournament by five strokes, Tiger would need a 68 to force a playoff.

The same situation would exist with the other contenders but to a lesser degree.

If Tiger were to score a 68 while the others are giving back strokes to par, would that be a miracle comeback in your opinion? More edification, if you please.

Alex USMC 1969-73

Alex,

Are you planning to reach your retirement?

Wendy,

??????

Alex USMC 1969-73

Alex, yesterday's impulse to throttle you has somewhat subsided. Only somewhat.

BTW you had more "ifs" than I.