Predictions: The winning score of the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, and the champion won't be Phil Mickelson

I may not know how Phil Mickelson still has a full head of hair, or how a Detroit-area native like WorldGolf.com’s Chris Baldwin could hate hockey so much.

But I do know how to calculate the winning score of major tournaments.

Excerpt from my blog during Friday’s action at this year’s Masters:

I am now introducing a new and simple mathematical formula that will predict the final score of the winner. Take whatever grim number the players are predicting and drop five shots. In this case, we’ll use O’Meara as the whistle-blower. Given his “3-under” prediction, I am calling a very reasonable 8-under wins the Masters in 2008.

I first determined this formula at last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont. Many feeble saps were predicting a 10-over score. Angel Cabrera turned in a respectable 5-over.

This year, Torrey Pines is an interesting scenario, because many think the course will certainly be easier than last year’s diabolical Oakmont setup. Remember the last time the Open was on a west coast venue, and Tiger Woods shredded Pebble Beach.

Given the lowered height of the rough, wider fairways than usual, and the fact the course won’t be stretched out as far as the max 7,600-plus most of the days, I think we’re looking at scores well below par.

It should also be noted that Tiger Woods scored 19-under during the Buick Invitational, so no matter how much length is added, this isn’t a course designed to protect par.

Johnny Miller is predicting 4-under. I like that bell weather, coming from a veteran golfer. I am going to subtract five shots from that, for a winning score of 9-under.

Who wins it?

Sergio Garcia, although I’m hardly confident about this pick. Frankly, I just hope a Top 15 golfer wins the Open. My buddy and I were just talking about how it would be great to see Adam Scott prevail, especially since he’s the forgotten man in the dream pairing of the opening rounds.

I think Mickelson has already psyched himself out as he usually does, talking up the importance of the tournament. We all know even-keel wins tournaments and Lefty is definitely not that this week, though I think he could win the Thursday-Friday duel versus a rusty Tiger much like he did at Deutsche Bank last fall.

Get my bookie on the line…